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The failure of foresight in crisis management: A secondary analysis of the Mari disaster

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  • Constantinides, Panos

Abstract

Foresight the ability to plan and think systematically about future scenarios in order to inform decision-making in the present has been applied extensively by corporations and governments alike in crisis management. Foresight can be complicated because dispersed groups have diverse, non-overlapping pieces of information that affects an organization's ability to detect, mitigate, and recover from failures. This paper explores the failure of foresight in crisis management by drawing on data on events that preceded and followed the Mari disaster in a naval base in Cyprus in July 2011, where a large explosion killed 13 people and injured 62 others, while completely destroying the major power plant of the island. The paper examines how foresight into crisis management decisions was compromised because of a conscious effort by high ranking decision-makers to minimize emergent danger and avoid responsibility for the crisis, in joint with red tape, bureaucracy, and poor coordination and information flows. The paper explores the notion of operational and political responsibility of individual decision-makers and discusses an alternative approach to foresight in crisis management, one that is built on multiple layers of decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantinides, Panos, 2013. "The failure of foresight in crisis management: A secondary analysis of the Mari disaster," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(9), pages 1657-1673.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:9:p:1657-1673
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.017
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    Cited by:

    1. Reuter, Christian & Kaufhold, Marc-André & Schmid, Stefka & Spielhofer, Thomas & Hahne, Anna Sophie, 2019. "The impact of risk cultures: Citizens' perception of social media use in emergencies across Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Rameshwar Dubey & Nezih Altay & Constantin Blome, 2019. "Swift trust and commitment: The missing links for humanitarian supply chain coordination?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 159-177, December.
    3. Kyoo-Man Ha, 2017. "Three-Domain Model for Disaster Management Framework," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 18(4), pages 321-329, December.
    4. Qing Yang & Chen Zuo & Xingxing Liu & Zhichao Yang & Hui Zhou, 2020. "Risk Response for Municipal Solid Waste Crisis Using Ontology-Based Reasoning," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-23, May.

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