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Strategic foresight using a modified Delphi with end-user participation: A case study of the iPad's impact on Taiwan's PC ecosystem

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Listed:
  • Hung, Chih-Young
  • Lee, Wen-Yee
  • Wang, Ding-Shan

Abstract

Taiwan is a personal computer (PC) manufacturing powerhouse, producing desktop (DT) computers, notebooks (NB), and netbooks (NetB). However, the emergence of tablets such as Apple's iPad, has threatened the PC market's prospects and significantly affected Taiwan's PC ecosystem. This study proposes a modified Delphi with end-user participation to provide strategic foresight for firms in Taiwan's PC ecosystem. The results show that these firms can adopt the following three strategies in response to the impact of tablets: (1) brand and service innovation, (2) focus on cloud technology and marketing products to China, and (3) cooperating with digital leisure and entertainment industry. We believe that this modified Delphi with end-user-participation model is a valuable foresight tool for products with a short life cycle, such as consumer electronics and fashion products.

Suggested Citation

  • Hung, Chih-Young & Lee, Wen-Yee & Wang, Ding-Shan, 2013. "Strategic foresight using a modified Delphi with end-user participation: A case study of the iPad's impact on Taiwan's PC ecosystem," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-497.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:3:p:485-497
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.008
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tsujimoto, Masaharu & Kajikawa, Yuya & Tomita, Junichi & Matsumoto, Yoichi, 2018. "A review of the ecosystem concept — Towards coherent ecosystem design," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 49-58.
    3. Hung, Chih-Young & Lee, Wen-Yi, 2016. "A proactive technology selection model for new technology: The case of 3D IC TSV," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 191-202.
    4. Daiho Uhm & Jea-Bok Ryu & Sunghae Jun, 2017. "An Interval Estimation Method of Patent Keyword Data for Sustainable Technology Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Elizabeth Gibson & Tugrul Daim & Edwin Garces & Marina Dabic, 2018. "Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24.
    6. Zeng, Michael A. & Koller, Hans & Jahn, Reimo, 2019. "Open radar groups: The integration of online communities into open foresight processes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 204-217.
    7. Cristina Caterina Amitrano & Marco Tregua & Tiziana Russo Spena & Francesco Bifulco, 2018. "On Technology in Innovation Systems and Innovation-Ecosystem Perspectives: A Cross-Linking Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-15, October.
    8. Wen-Cheng Huang & Yi-Ying Lee, 2016. "Strategic Planning for Land Use under Extreme Climate Changes: A Case Study in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.

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