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Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical reflections on a climate change scenarios case study

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  • Cairns, George
  • Ahmed, Iftekhar
  • Mullett, Jane
  • Wright, George

Abstract

Scenario method is presented in the literature as a means for engaging heterogeneous stakeholder groups to explore climate change futures and to inform policy and planning for adaptation responses. We discuss a case study project investigating possible interactions between climate change impacts and a proposed major port expansion in Australia. The study engaged participants from the private sector, government and environmental groups, with input from college students from the local area. Semi-structured interviews and a scenario workshop were employed, creating individual space for expression of ideas, then a collaborative space for sharing these, exploring differences of perception and meaning, and developing a set of possible and plausible scenarios. Whilst the workshop resulted in consensus on key issues and proposed actions, intended to inform policy formation and planning, there was an unforeseen lack of short term follow up and of the groups working more closely together. We discuss the reasons for this through reflective critical analysis of both our own process and of contingent factors in the wider contextual environment. We conclude that the basic scenario approach is valuable, but does not itself act as a catalyst for effecting change when multiple agencies, interests and agendas and strong contingent factors are present.

Suggested Citation

  • Cairns, George & Ahmed, Iftekhar & Mullett, Jane & Wright, George, 2013. "Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical reflections on a climate change scenarios case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:1:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    2. Andersen, Per Dannemand & Hansen, Meiken & Selin, Cynthia, 2021. "Stakeholder inclusion in scenario planning—A review of European projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    4. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.
    5. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
    6. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter & Phillips, Richard, 2017. "‘Branching scenarios’ seeking articulated action for regional regeneration – A case study of limited success," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 189-202.
    7. Panahi, Roozbeh & Ng, Adolf K.Y. & Pang, Jiayi, 2020. "Climate change adaptation in the port industry: A complex of lingering research gaps and uncertainties," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 10-29.
    8. Heinonen, Sirkka & Minkkinen, Matti & Karjalainen, Joni & Inayatullah, Sohail, 2017. "Testing transformative energy scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 101-113.
    9. Klein, T.M. & Celio, E. & Grêt-Regamey, A., 2015. "Ecosystem services visualization and communication: A demand analysis approach for designing information and conceptualizing decision support systems," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 173-183.
    10. Lauren Rickards & John Wiseman & Taegen Edwards & Che Biggs, 2014. "The Problem of Fit: Scenario Planning and Climate Change Adaptation in the Public Sector," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 32(4), pages 641-662, August.
    11. O'Brien, Frances A. & Meadows, Maureen & Griffiths, Sam, 2017. "Serialisation and the use of Twitter: Keeping the conversation alive in public policy scenario projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 26-40.
    12. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
    13. Meadows, Maureen & O'Brien, Frances A., 2020. "The use of scenarios in developing strategy: An analysis of conversation and video data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    14. Burt, George & Mackay, David & Mendibil, Kepa, 2021. "Overcoming multi-stakeholder fragmented narratives in land use, woodland and forestry policy: The role scenario planning and ‘dissociative jolts’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).

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