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Combining conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, the Delphi method, and the innovation diffusion model to analyze the development of innovative products in Taiwan's TV market

Author

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  • Tseng, Fang-Mei
  • Lin, Ya-Ti
  • Yang, Shen-Chi

Abstract

In science and technology industries, innovative products are launched rapidly, making the lifecycle of new products ever shorter. Thus, it is important that companies understand consumers' needs and consider expert opinion when analyzing the development of a new technology. However, no studies have combined these two perspectives with regard to the development of a new product. Therefore, this research combined conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, and the Delphi method with the innovative diffusion model to analyze the development of Taiwan's TV market over the next 10years. The results show that the outlook for demand for light-emitting diode (LED) TVs in Taiwan is very optimistic; sales of LED TVs will surpass sales of liquid crystal display TVs in 2015 in the optimistic scenario and in 2017 in the most likely scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Tseng, Fang-Mei & Lin, Ya-Ti & Yang, Shen-Chi, 2012. "Combining conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, the Delphi method, and the innovation diffusion model to analyze the development of innovative products in Taiwan's TV market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1462-1473.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:8:p:1462-1473
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.022
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    Cited by:

    1. Bennett, Roger & Vijaygopal, Rohini, 2024. "Exploring mobility and transportation technology futures for people with ambulatory disabilities: A science fiction prototype," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Hurmekoski, Elias & Jonsson, Ragnar & Nord, Tomas, 2015. "Context, drivers, and future potential for wood-frame multi-story construction in Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 181-196.
    3. Goodwin, Paul & Meeran, Sheik & Dyussekeneva, Karima, 2014. "The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1082-1097.
    4. Li, Xishu & Yin, Ying & Manrique, David Vergara & Bäck, Thomas, 2021. "Lifecycle forecast for consumer technology products with limited sales data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    5. Potstada, Michael & Zybura, Jan, 2014. "The role of context in science fiction prototyping: The digital industrial revolution," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 101-114.
    6. Tseng, Fang-Mei & Wang, Shenq-Yuan & Hsieh, Chih-Hung & Guo, Aifang, 2014. "An integrated model for analyzing the development of the 4G telecommunications market in Taiwan," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 14-31.

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