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Modelling transport fuel pathways: Achieving cost-effective oil use reduction in passenger cars in Sweden

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  • Börjesson, Martin
  • Ahlgren, Erik O.

Abstract

Several technology and fuel options could be used to lower the strong oil dependence of the transportation sector. To formulate policies and to cost-effectively meet oil reduction objectives, assessments and comparisons of the long-term economic performances of different technology trajectories are essential. In this work, the energy and technology costs associated with reducing oil consumption in passenger cars in Sweden are calculated for a number of possible future transport fuel pathways and for different energy prices and climate policies. An optimisation model is applied in a simulatory multiple-run approach for this purpose. The model encompasses the transportation sector, as well as the stationary energy system. In terms of results, a methanol-based pathway gives incremental system costs in the range of −0.9–3billion EUR for a complete phase-out of passenger car oil up to 2030. As compared to the methanol pathway, other biomass gasification-based fuel pathways involve additional incremental system costs in the region of 3billion EUR, whereas ethanol- and electricity-based pathways give additional incremental system costs of 4–5billion EUR. At lower oil reduction levels, the cost differences between the pathways are smaller and the electricity-based pathway is significantly more cost-competitive.

Suggested Citation

  • Börjesson, Martin & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2012. "Modelling transport fuel pathways: Achieving cost-effective oil use reduction in passenger cars in Sweden," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 801-818.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:5:p:801-818
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.10.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Tommy Rosén & Louise Ödlund, 2019. "System Perspective on Biogas Use for Transport and Electricity Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-13, October.
    2. Hagos, Dejene Assefa & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2020. "Exploring cost-effective transitions to fossil independent transportation in the future energy system of Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    3. Pettersson, Karin & Wetterlund, Elisabeth & Athanassiadis, Dimitris & Lundmark, Robert & Ehn, Christian & Lundgren, Joakim & Berglin, Niklas, 2015. "Integration of next-generation biofuel production in the Swedish forest industry – A geographically explicit approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 317-332.
    4. Bramstoft, Rasmus & Pizarro-Alonso, Amalia & Jensen, Ida Græsted & Ravn, Hans & Münster, Marie, 2020. "Modelling of renewable gas and renewable liquid fuels in future integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    5. Börjesson Hagberg, Martin & Pettersson, Karin & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2016. "Bioenergy futures in Sweden – Modeling integration scenarios for biofuel production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1026-1039.
    6. Melander, Lisa & Dubois, Anna & Hedvall, Klas & Lind, Frida, 2019. "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 178-189.

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