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An analysis of the time-lag effect of global geopolitical risk on business cycle based on visibility graph technique

Author

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  • SHANG, Yunfeng
  • XIA, Zhongwei
  • XIAO, Zhongyi
  • SHUM, Wai Yan

Abstract

This paper employs a novel visibility graph technique to explore the time-lagged effects of global geopolitical risks on unemployment rates. This approach aids in understanding and predicting future global economic cycles and conditions. The study reveals that global geopolitical risks impact economic cycles through channels such as WTI crude oil prices and economic policy uncertainty. Specifically, the average lag through WTI crude oil prices is 7.5 months, and through economic policy uncertainty, it is 8.4 months. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the varying lagged effects of global geopolitical risks on economic cycles across different countries.

Suggested Citation

  • SHANG, Yunfeng & XIA, Zhongwei & XIAO, Zhongyi & SHUM, Wai Yan, 2024. "An analysis of the time-lag effect of global geopolitical risk on business cycle based on visibility graph technique," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:209:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524006218
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123823
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