IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v191y2023ics0040162523001580.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating and forecasting the niche fitness of regional innovation ecosystems: A comparative evaluation of different optimized grey models

Author

Listed:
  • Xie, Xuemei
  • Liu, Xiaojie
  • Blanco, Cristina

Abstract

There is little research that evaluates the niche fitness of regional innovation ecosystems (RIEs) based on current niche theories, even though RIE development is a key driver of national and regional development. This study seeks to address the gap in research by constructing an evaluation index system and an evaluation model for the niche fitness of RIEs based on niche theories and by assessing the niche fitness of 30 Chinese RIEs for the years 2010 to 2019. The results show, first, that from 2010 to 2019, the niche fitness of Chinese RIEs overall was low. We suggest one possible reason for this finding might be the imbalanced development of different Chinese RIEs, as well as the lagging development of China's innovation community and habitat niche. Second, our findings show that RIE development needs a higher level of support from different ecological factors. Moreover, studies that predict the niche fitness of RIEs using forecasting models such as the grey model—GM (1,1)—remain scarce, even though forecasting the niche fitness of RIEs could provide a good reference for formulating innovation policies. Therefore, this study, aiming to fill this research gap, also establishes an optimized grey model—FMCGM (1,1)—to forecast the niche fitness of Chinese RIEs for the years 2021–2025, in addition to the analysis discussed above. Our results obtained by using FMCGM (1,1) show, first, that in the period 2021–2025, the niche fitness of Chinese RIEs will gradually increase, and second, that the development mode of Chinese RIEs will change from one mainly supported by the resource niche and the technology niche into a more balanced support mode via different ecological factors. To sum up, this study, presenting new methods to evaluate and forecast the niche fitness of RIEs, not only contributes to the research of RIE and grey forecasting models but also provides new insights for RIE governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Xuemei & Liu, Xiaojie & Blanco, Cristina, 2023. "Evaluating and forecasting the niche fitness of regional innovation ecosystems: A comparative evaluation of different optimized grey models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:191:y:2023:i:c:s0040162523001580
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122473
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162523001580
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122473?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, Mei-Chih & Mathews, John A., 2008. "China's national innovative capacity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1465-1479, October.
    2. Belussi, Fiorenza & Sammarra, Alessia & Sedita, Silvia Rita, 2010. "Learning at the boundaries in an "Open Regional Innovation System": A focus on firms' innovation strategies in the Emilia Romagna life science industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 710-721, July.
    3. Chen, Ping-Chuan & Hung, Shiu-Wan, 2016. "An actor-network perspective on evaluating the R&D linking efficiency of innovation ecosystems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 303-312.
    4. Weiwei Ye & Yan Wang, 2019. "Exploring the Triple Helix Synergy in Chinese National System of Innovation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-17, November.
    5. Xie, Xuemei & Wang, Hongwei, 2020. "How can open innovation ecosystem modes push product innovation forward? An fsQCA analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 29-41.
    6. Yannis Pierrakis & George Saridakis, 2019. "The role of venture capitalists in the regional innovation ecosystem: a comparison of networking patterns between private and publicly backed venture capital funds," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 850-873, June.
    7. Elisa Villani & Christian Lechner, 2021. "How to acquire legitimacy and become a player in a regional innovation ecosystem? The case of a young university," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1017-1045, August.
    8. Jha, Ashutosh & Saha, Debashis, 2020. "“Forecasting and analysing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Wu, Lifeng & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng & Xu, Haiyan, 2015. "Properties of the GM(1,1) with fractional order accumulation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 287-293.
    10. Wang, Ya & Pan, Jiao-feng & Pei, Rui-min & Yi, Bo-Wen & Yang, Guo-liang, 2020. "Assessing the technological innovation efficiency of China's high-tech industries with a two-stage network DEA approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Wen-ze Wu & Tao Zhang, 2020. "An improved gray interval forecast method and its application," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 1120-1131, March.
    12. Zhao, Huiru & Guo, Sen, 2016. "An optimized grey model for annual power load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 272-286.
    13. Cooke, Philip & Gomez Uranga, Mikel & Etxebarria, Goio, 1997. "Regional innovation systems: Institutional and organisational dimensions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4-5), pages 475-491, December.
    14. Elisa Thomas & Kadigia Faccin & Bjørn Terje Asheim, 2021. "Universities as orchestrators of the development of regional innovation ecosystems in emerging economies," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 770-789, June.
    15. Satish Nambisan & Robert A. Baron, 2013. "Entrepreneurship in Innovation Ecosystems: Entrepreneurs’ Self–Regulatory Processes and Their Implications for New Venture Success," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 37(5), pages 1071-1097, September.
    16. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Li, Qin & Pei, Ling-Ling, 2018. "A seasonal GM(1,1) model for forecasting the electricity consumption of the primary economic sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 522-534.
    17. Ke Rong & Y. Lin & J. Yu & Y. Zhang & A. Radziwon, 2021. "Exploring regional innovation ecosystems: an empirical study in China," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 545-569, May.
    18. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Callum Wilkie, 2019. "Innovating in less developed regions: What drives patenting in the lagging regions of Europe and North America," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 4-37, March.
    19. Fukuda, Kayano, 2020. "Science, technology and innovation ecosystem transformation toward society 5.0," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    20. Angelo Cavallo & Antonio Ghezzi & Cristina Rossi-Lamastra, 2021. "Small-medium enterprises and innovative startups in entrepreneurial ecosystems: exploring an under-remarked relation," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1843-1866, December.
    21. Qin-Qin Shen & Quan Shi & Tian-Pei Tang & Lin-Quan Yao, 2020. "A Novel Weighted Fractional GM(1,1) Model and Its Applications," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-20, January.
    22. Ross Brown, 2021. "Mission-oriented or mission adrift? A critical examination of mission-oriented innovation policies," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 739-761, April.
    23. Radziwon, Agnieszka & Bogers, Marcel, 2019. "Open innovation in SMEs: Exploring inter-organizational relationships in an ecosystem," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 573-587.
    24. Wang, Eric C., 2007. "R&D efficiency and economic performance: A cross-country analysis using the stochastic frontier approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 345-360.
    25. Wang, Wensheng & Zhang, Chengyi, 2018. "Evaluation of relative technological innovation capability: Model and case study for China's coal mine," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 144-149.
    26. Yutao Sun & Cong Cao, 2020. "The dynamics of the studies of China’s science, technology and innovation (STI): a bibliometric analysis of an emerging field," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(2), pages 1335-1365, August.
    27. Douglas P. Hannah & Kathleen M. Eisenhardt, 2018. "How firms navigate cooperation and competition in nascent ecosystems," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(12), pages 3163-3192, December.
    28. Ma, Xuejiao & Jiang, Ping & Jiang, Qichuan, 2020. "Research and application of association rule algorithm and an optimized grey model in carbon emissions forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    29. Kaihua Chen & Jiancheng Guan, 2012. "Measuring the Efficiency of China's Regional Innovation Systems: Application of Network Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 355-377, April.
    30. Min-Ren Yan & Kuo-Ming Chien & Lin-Ya Hong & Tai-Ning Yang, 2018. "Evaluating the Collaborative Ecosystem for an Innovation-Driven Economy: A Systems Analysis and Case Study of Science Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    31. Ron Adner & Rahul Kapoor, 2010. "Value creation in innovation ecosystems: how the structure of technological interdependence affects firm performance in new technology generations," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 306-333, March.
    32. Maria Vincenza Ciasullo & Orlando Troisi & Mara Grimaldi & Daniele Leone, 2020. "Multi-level governance for sustainable innovation in smart communities: an ecosystems approach," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1167-1195, December.
    33. Beltagui, Ahmad & Rosli, Ainurul & Candi, Marina, 2020. "Exaptation in a digital innovation ecosystem: The disruptive impacts of 3D printing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    34. Malcolm Beynon & Paul Jones & David Pickernell, 2021. "Innovation and the knowledge-base for entrepreneurship: investigating SME innovation across European regions using fsQCA," Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3-4), pages 227-248, March.
    35. Hugo Pinto & João Guerreiro, 2010. "Innovation regional planning and latent dimensions: the case of the Algarve region," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(2), pages 315-329, April.
    36. Luo, Xilin & Duan, Huiming & Xu, Kai, 2021. "A novel grey model based on traditional Richards model and its application in COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    37. Yi Su & Dezhi Liang & Wen Guo, 2020. "Application of Multiattribute Decision-Making for Evaluating Regional Innovation Capacity," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-20, September.
    38. Caiyan Jia & Xiaoyun Tang & Zhehan Kan, 2020. "Does the Nation Innovation System in China Support the Sustainability of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Innovation?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    39. David B. Audretsch & Georg M. Eichler & Erich J. Schwarz, 2022. "Emerging needs of social innovators and social innovation ecosystems," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 217-254, March.
    40. Sara González Fernández & Renata Kubus & Juan Mascareñas Pérez-Iñigo, 2019. "Innovation Ecosystems in the EU: Policy Evolution and Horizon Europe Proposal Case Study (the Actors’ Perspective)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-25, August.
    41. Shaw, Duncan R. & Allen, Tim, 2018. "Studying innovation ecosystems using ecology theory," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 88-102.
    42. Li, Xibao, 2009. "China's regional innovation capacity in transition: An empirical approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 338-357, March.
    43. Granstrand, Ove & Holgersson, Marcus, 2020. "Innovation ecosystems: A conceptual review and a new definition," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 90.
    44. Oh, Deog-Seong & Phillips, Fred & Park, Sehee & Lee, Eunghyun, 2016. "Innovation ecosystems: A critical examination," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-6.
    45. Zhang, Shangfeng & Chen, Congcong & Xu, Siwa & Xu, Bing, 2021. "Measurement of capital allocation efficiency in emerging economies: evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    46. Ene, Seval & Öztürk, Nursel, 2017. "Grey modelling based forecasting system for return flow of end-of-life vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 155-166.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yipeng Zhang, 2023. "The Sustainability of Regional Innovation in China: Insights from Regional Innovation Values and Their Spatial Distribution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-42, June.
    2. Zemenghong Bao & Zhisen Lin & Tiantian Jin & Kun Lv, 2024. "Regional Breakthrough Innovation Change Strategies, Ecological Location Suitability of High-Tech Industry Innovation Ecosystems, and Green Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-34, August.
    3. Xuhong Zhang & Haiqing Hu & Cheng Zhou, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Cause Analysis of Innovation Ecosystem Niche Fitness: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Ruiyu Hu & Zemenghong Bao & Zhisen Lin & Kun Lv, 2024. "The Innovative Construction of Provinces, Regional Artificial Intelligence Development, and the Resilience of Regional Innovation Ecosystems: Quasi-Natural Experiments Based on Spatial Difference-in-D," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-37, September.
    5. Yuan, Ning & Li, Meijuan, 2024. "Research on collaborative innovation behavior of enterprise innovation ecosystem under evolutionary game," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yanzhang Gu & Longying Hu & Hongjin Zhang & Chenxuan Hou, 2021. "Innovation Ecosystem Research: Emerging Trends and Future Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-21, October.
    2. Shi, Xianwei & Liang, Xingkun & Luo, Yining, 2023. "Unpacking the intellectual structure of ecosystem research in innovation studies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(6).
    3. Silva, Lucas Emmanuel Nascimento & Gomes, Leonardo Augusto de Vasconcelos & Faria, Aline Mariane de & Borini, Felipe Mendes, 2024. "Innovation processes in ecosystem settings: An integrative framework and future directions," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Rush, Howard & Marshall, Nick & Bessant, John & Ramalingam, Ben, 2021. "Applying an ecosystems approach to humanitarian innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Gomes, Leonardo Augusto de Vasconcelos & Flechas, Ximena Alejandra & Facin, Ana Lucia Figueiredo & Borini, Felipe Mendes, 2021. "Ecosystem management: Past achievements and future promises," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    6. Okpalaoka, Chijindu Iheanacho, 2023. "Research on the digital economy: Developing trends and future directions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    7. Lijie Feng & Jiarui Lu & Jinfeng Wang, 2021. "A Systematic Review of Enterprise Innovation Ecosystems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-26, May.
    8. Yuan, Ning & Li, Meijuan, 2024. "Research on collaborative innovation behavior of enterprise innovation ecosystem under evolutionary game," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    9. Zhongji Yang & Liangqun Qi & Xin Li & Tianxi Wang, 2022. "How Does Successful Catch-Up Occur in Complex Products and Systems from the Innovation Ecosystem Perspective? A Case of China’s High-Speed Railway," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Mingqiu Li & Heng Chen & Jinqiu Li & Xiaolei Liu, 2023. "How to Improve the Synergetic Development Capabilities of the Innovation Ecosystems of High-Tech Industries in China: An fsQCA Analysis Based on the TOE Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-32, August.
    11. Chaudhary, Sanjay & Kaur, Puneet & Ferraris, Alberto & Bresciani, Stefano & Dhir, Amandeep, 2024. "Connecting entrepreneurial ecosystem and innovation. Grasping at straws or hitting a home run?," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Reza Naghizadeh & Shaban Elahi & Manoochehr Manteghi & Sepehr Ghazinoory & Marina Ranga, 2015. "Through the magnifying glass: an analysis of regional innovation models based on co-word and meta-synthesis methods," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2481-2505, November.
    13. Gomes, Leonardo Augusto de Vasconcelos & Fleury, André Leme & Oliveira, Maicon Gouvêa de & Facin, Ana Lucia Figueiredo, 2021. "Ecosystem policy roadmapping," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    14. Cobben, Dieudonnee & Ooms, Ward & Roijakkers, Nadine, 2023. "Indicators for innovation ecosystem health: A Delphi study," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    15. Marzena Kramarz & Lilla Knop & Edyta Przybylska & Katarzyna Dohn, 2021. "Stakeholders of the Multimodal Freight Transport Ecosystem in Polish–Czech–Slovak Cross-Border Area," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-32, April.
    16. Marcon, Arthur & Ribeiro, José Luis Duarte & Olteanu, Yasmin & Fichter, Klaus, 2024. "How the interplay between innovation ecosystems and market contingency factors impacts startup innovation," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Pushpananthan, Gouthanan & Elmquist, Maria, 2022. "Joining forces to create value: The emergence of an innovation ecosystem," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    18. Xie, Xuemei & Wang, Hongwei, 2021. "How to bridge the gap between innovation niches and exploratory and exploitative innovations in open innovation ecosystems," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 299-311.
    19. Hannigan, Timothy R. & Briggs, Anthony R. & Valadao, Rodrigo & Seidel, Marc-David L. & Jennings, P. Devereaux, 2022. "A new tool for policymakers: Mapping cultural possibilities in an emerging AI entrepreneurial ecosystem," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(9).
    20. Dong, Caiting & Liu, Xielin & Tang, Fangcheng & Qiu, Shumin, 2023. "How upstream innovativeness of ecosystems affects firms' innovation: The contingent role of absorptive capacity and upstream dependence," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:191:y:2023:i:c:s0040162523001580. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.