IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v167y2021ics0040162521001591.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future scenarios for the development of the desalination industry in contexts of water scarcity: A Brazilian case study

Author

Listed:
  • Moreira, Fabrícia de Souza
  • Lopes, Mariana Padilha Campos
  • de Freitas, Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos
  • Antunes, Adelaide Maria de Souza

Abstract

Despite its abundant water resources, Brazil faces water distribution problems, since the population is concentrated mainly in areas with less water availability. This fact combined with the impacts of climate change has intensified problems related to the country's water crisis in recent years. Desalination has emerged as a promising technology to meet freshwater demands. However, the desalination in Brazil is still incipient, with its expansion being linked to technical, economic, and political issues. The desalted water price, technological development, tax incentives, and other variables affect the growth of this sector. In this study, the scenario planning method is used to model these uncertainties and to formulate alternative scenarios for the development of desalination in Brazil by 2050. The study shows four possible futures for the Brazilian desalination industry: the weakening of the sector due mainly to the high costs of desalted water production (Scenario 3), the full development of the industry with desalination plants in the main cities, meeting the water demand of the population (Scenario 4), the moderate growth of this industry that will serve the population in drought periods (Scenario 2), and, Scenario 1 which describes a continuation of current trends, with desalination units only in remote regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Moreira, Fabrícia de Souza & Lopes, Mariana Padilha Campos & de Freitas, Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos & Antunes, Adelaide Maria de Souza, 2021. "Future scenarios for the development of the desalination industry in contexts of water scarcity: A Brazilian case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:167:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001591
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120727
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521001591
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120727?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dong, Congli & Schoups, Gerrit & van de Giesen, Nick, 2013. "Scenario development for water resource planning and management: A review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 749-761.
    2. Ana Carolina Campos Gomes & Nariane Bernardo & Enner Alcântara, 2017. "Accessing the southeastern Brazil 2014 drought severity on the vegetation health by satellite image," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1401-1420, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nametala, Ciniro Aparecido Leite & Faria, Wandry Rodrigues & Lage, Guilherme Guimarães & Pereira, Benvindo Rodrigues, 2023. "Analysis of hourly price granularity implementation in the Brazilian deregulated electricity contracting environment," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Zhineng & Chen, Yazhen & Yao, Liming & Wei, Changting & Li, Chaozhi, 2016. "Optimal allocation of regional water resources: From a perspective of equity–efficiency tradeoff," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 102-113.
    2. Feng, Le & Chen, Bin & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed & Ahmad, Bashir, 2017. "Dynamic forecasting of agricultural water footprint based on Markov Chain-a case study of the Heihe River Basin," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 150-157.
    3. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    4. Richarde Marques Silva & Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos & Jorge Flávio Cazé Braga Costa Silva & Alexandro Medeiros Silva & Reginaldo Moura Brasil Neto, 2020. "Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 829-849, July.
    5. Huanhuan Qin & Chunmiao Zheng & Xin He & Jens Christian Refsgaard, 2019. "Analysis of Water Management Scenarios Using Coupled Hydrological and System Dynamics Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(14), pages 4849-4863, November.
    6. Addolorata Marasco & Alessandro Romano, 2018. "Deterministic modeling in scenario forecasting: estimating the effects of two public policies on intergenerational conflict," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2345-2371, September.
    7. Marasco, A. & Picucci, A. & Romano, A., 2016. "Market share dynamics using Lotka–Volterra models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 49-62.
    8. Goran Dominioni & Addolorata Marasco & Alessandro Romano, 2018. "A mathematical approach to study and forecast racial groups interactions: deterministic modeling and scenario method," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1929-1956, July.
    9. Jahel, Camille & Bourgeois, Robin & Bourgoin, Jérémy & Daré, William's & De Lattre-Gasquet, Marie & Delay, Etienne & Dumas, Patrice & Le Page, Christophe & Piraux, Marc & Prudhomme, Rémi, 2023. "The future of social-ecological systems at the crossroads of quantitative and qualitative methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Marasco, Addolorata & Romano, Alessandro, 2018. "Inter-port interactions in the Le Havre-Hamburg range: A scenario analysis using a nonautonomous Lotka Volterra model," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 207-220.
    11. Glauciene Justino Ferreira da Silva & Nádja Melo Oliveira & Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos & Richarde Marques Silva, 2020. "Spatiotemporal variability of vegetation due to drought dynamics (2012–2017): a case study of the Upper Paraíba River basin, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 939-964, July.
    12. Wu, Bingfang & Ma, Zonghan & Boken, Vijendra K. & Zeng, Hongwei & Shang, Jiali & Igor, Savin & Wang, Jinxia & Yan, Nana, 2022. "Regional differences in the performance of drought mitigation measures in 12 major wheat-growing regions of the world," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    13. Katharina Proswitz & Mamkwe Claudia Edward & Mariele Evers & Felister Mombo & Alexander Mpwaga & Kristian Näschen & Jennifer Sesabo & Britta Höllermann, 2021. "Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-27, June.
    14. Pauline Macharia & Nzula Kitaka & Paul Yillia & Norbert Kreuzinger, 2021. "Assessing Future Water Demand and Associated Energy Input with Plausible Scenarios for Water Service Providers (WSPs) in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-22, April.
    15. Mathijs Vliet & Kasper Kok, 2015. "Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 43-74, January.
    16. Andrea K. Gerlak & Katharine L. Jacobs & Amy L. McCoy & Season Martin & Mariana Rivera-Torres & Anna M. Murveit & Amanda J. Leinberger & Timothy Thomure, 2021. "Scenario Planning: Embracing the Potential for Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-21, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:167:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.