IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v118y2017icp258-269.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An approach for forecasting of public water scarcity at the end of the 21st century, in the Timiş Plain of Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Mitrică, Bianca
  • Mitrică, Eugen
  • Enciu, Petru
  • Mocanu, Irena

Abstract

The balance between water demand and availability in Romania, as well as in many areas of Europe, will soon reach a critical level if predictions by simulated climate change scenarios are correct. The article is focused on the risk of water shortages, due to the climate change, in the Timiş Plain in Romania, a densely populated region, with 346,818 inhabitants. Estimates of future water availability for public water supply consider relevant socio-economic scenarios for major water users, estimate their future water demand, and assess water shortage for the main users. The water demand components were estimated for households, industries, services, and livestock, based on specific socio-economic assumptions. A non-probabilistic risk assessment, using simplified fuzzy sets mathematics, considers water supply, water demand and the consequences of water shortage. The results of the study revealed a vulnerability of the water supply and sewerage networks, an expected increase in households' demand, in the rural and in the urban, an expected increase for industrial and services water demand and a positive dynamic for the livestock water demand and finally a water shortage in the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitrică, Bianca & Mitrică, Eugen & Enciu, Petru & Mocanu, Irena, 2017. "An approach for forecasting of public water scarcity at the end of the 21st century, in the Timiş Plain of Romania," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 258-269.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:118:y:2017:i:c:p:258-269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517302469
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. W. D. Shaw, 2005. "Water Resource Economics and Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3495.
    2. Molle, François & Berkoff, J., 2006. "Cities versus agriculture: revisiting intersectoral water transfers, potential gains and conflicts," IWMI Research Reports H038722, International Water Management Institute.
    3. Molle, Francois & Berkoff, Jeremy, 2006. "Cities versus agriculture: Revisiting intersectoral water transfers, potential gains and conflicts," IWMI Research Reports 91817, International Water Management Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Molle, Francois & Berkoff, Jeremy, 2007. "Water pricing in irrigation: the lifetime of an idea," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Wegerich, Kai & Van Rooijen, Daniel & Soliev, Ilkhom & Mukhamedova, Nozilakhon, 2015. "Water Security in the Syr Darya Basin," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(9), pages 4657-4684.
    3. Molle, Francois & Berkoff, J., 2007. "Water pricing in irrigation: the lifetime of an idea," IWMI Books, Reports H040600, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Erez Braude & Shmuel Hauser & Zilla Sinuany-Stern & Gideon Oron, 2015. "Water Allocation Between the Agricultural and the Municipal Sectors Under Scarcity: A Financial Approach Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3481-3501, August.
    5. Scheierling, Susanne M., 2011. "Assessing the direct economic effects of reallocating irrigation water to alternative uses : concepts and an application," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5797, The World Bank.
    6. Alcon, Francisco & Zabala, José A. & Martínez-García, Victor & Albaladejo, José A. & López-Becerra, Erasmo I. & de-Miguel, María D. & Martínez-Paz, José M., 2022. "The social wellbeing of irrigation water. A demand-side integrated valuation in a Mediterranean agroecosystem," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    7. Molden, David & Oweis, T. Y. & Pasquale, S. & Kijne, Jacob W. & Hanjra, M. A. & Bindraban, P. S. & Bouman, Bas A. M. & Cook, S. & Erenstein, O. & Farahani, H. & Hachum, A. & Hoogeveen, J. & Mahoo, Hen, 2007. "Pathways for increasing agricultural water productivity," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    8. Tellioglu, Isin & Konandreas, Panos, 2017. "Agricultural Policies, Trade and Sustainable Development in Egypt," National Policies, Trade and Sustainable Development 320158, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    9. Francois Molle & Jeremy Berkoff, 2009. "Cities vs. agriculture: A review of intersectoral water re‐allocation," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 6-18, February.
    10. J. Alarcón & L. Juana, 2016. "The Water Markets as Effective Tools of Managing Water Shortages in an Irrigation District," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(8), pages 2611-2625, June.
    11. Patel, Ankit & Krishnan, Sunderrajan, 2009. "Groundwater situation in urban India: overview, opportunities and challenges," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    12. Patel, Ankit & Krishnan, Sunderrajan, 2009. "Groundwater situation in urban India: overview, opportunities and challenges," IWMI Books, Reports H042047, International Water Management Institute.
    13. Turral, Hugh & Svendsen, Mark & Faures, Jean Marc, 2010. "Investing in irrigation: Reviewing the past and looking to the future," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 551-560, April.
    14. Giordano, Meredith & Turral, H. & Scheierling, S. M. & Treguer, D. O. & McCornick, Peter G, 2017. "Beyond “More Crop per Drop”: evolving thinking on agricultural water productivity," IWMI Research Reports 257962, International Water Management Institute.
    15. Molle, François & Wester, Philippus & Hirsch, Philip, 2010. "River basin closure: Processes, implications and responses," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 569-577, April.
    16. Punjabi, Bharat & Johnson, Craig A., 2019. "The politics of rural–urban water conflict in India: Untapping the power of institutional reform," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 182-192.
    17. Castillo, G. E. & Namara, Regassa & Ravnborg, H. M. & Hanjra, M. A. & Smith, L. & Hussein, M. H. & Bene, Christopher & Cook, S. & Hirsch, D. & Polak, P. & Valee, Domitille & van Koppen, Barbara, 2007. "Reversing the flow: agricultural water management pathways for poverty reduction," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    18. Pant, Dhruba & Bhattarai, Madhusudan & Basnet, Govinda, 2008. "Implications of bulk water transfer on local water management institutions: A case study of the Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal," CAPRi working papers 78, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Alexandra Evans & Samyuktha Varma, 2009. "Practicalities of participation in urban IWRM: Perspectives of wastewater management in two cities in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 19-28, February.
    20. L. Venkatachalam & Kulbhushan Balooni, 2018. "Water transfer from irrigation tanks for urban use: can payment for ecosystem services produce efficient outcomes?," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 51-65, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:118:y:2017:i:c:p:258-269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.