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Emergence of controversy in technology transitions: Green Revolution and Bt cotton in India

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  • Ramani, Shyama V.
  • Thutupalli, Ajay

Abstract

Technology transitions following radical technological breakthroughs are often marked by controversies and the transitions to Green Revolution (GR) and Genetically Modified (GM) seeds in India were no exceptions to this rule. Controversies can trigger social dilemmas, but in economics we do not yet have a clear understanding of how they emerge in the wake of major technological transitions. In order to provide insight, we develop a novel conceptual framework of technology transition integrating ‘Nature’ as a non-economic actor in the innovation system. Then this framework is applied to analyze India's GR and GM transitions in cereals and cotton respectively, using the methods of historical reconstruction, meta-analysis of impact literature and a farmer survey. We show that the trigger points of controversies were different in the two cases, and in general can emerge in any stage of a technology transition. In particular, in the agricultural innovation system, the ecological outcomes rather than economic outcomes are likely to be stronger focal points of controversy. Controversies are also likely to increase as the innovation system becomes complex. High immediate payoffs can override concerns founded on scientific uncertainty in the adoption of new technologies.

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  • Ramani, Shyama V. & Thutupalli, Ajay, 2015. "Emergence of controversy in technology transitions: Green Revolution and Bt cotton in India," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 198-212.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:100:y:2015:i:c:p:198-212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.06.018
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    Cited by:

    1. Klein, Amarolinda & Sørensen, Carsten & Freitas, Angilberto Sabino de & Pedron, Cristiane Drebes & Elaluf-Calderwood, Silvia, 2020. "Understanding controversies in digital platform innovation processes: The Google Glass case," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Ajay Thutupalli & Michiko Iizuka, 2016. "Catching-up in agricultural innovation: the case of Bacillus thuringiensis cotton in India," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 25(6), pages 923-940.
    3. Richet, Jean-Loup & Currás-Móstoles, Rosa & Martín, José María Martín, 2024. "Complexity in online collective assessments: Implications for the wisdom of the crowd," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Shyama V. Ramani & Mhamed-Ali El-Aroui, 2020. "On application of the precautionary principle to ban GMVs: an evolutionary model of new seed technology integration," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 1243-1266, September.

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