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The consequences of economic inequality for presidential elections in the United States

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  • Galbraith, James
  • Choi, Jaehee

Abstract

We apply an approach to building a dense and consistent data set for income inequality that was developed for international comparisons to the case of the fifty states (and the District of Columbia) within the United States. This permits us to measure the change of economic inequality year-to-year for each state going back to 1969, something that was previously difficult to do for years before 2000, owing to the small sample size of the Current Population Survey and the fact that the Census is conducted only once in ten years. Given that US presidential elections are decided on a state-by-state basis through a winner-take-all allocation of votes in the Electoral College, we ask whether and to what degree levels or changes of economic inequality at the level of individual states affect the partisan alignment of those states and therefore the outcome of US presidential elections. There is a strong association, and one that suggests an economic model of current American presidential politics, as well as making a prediction for its future direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Galbraith, James & Choi, Jaehee, 2020. "The consequences of economic inequality for presidential elections in the United States," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 86-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:53:y:2020:i:c:p:86-98
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2020.01.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Galbraith James K. & Hale J. Travis, 2006. "American Inequality: From IT Bust to Big Government Boom," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(8), pages 1-4, October.
    2. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(3), pages 565-591, September.
    3. Galbraith, James K., 2012. "Inequality and Instability: A Study of the World Economy Just Before the Great Crisis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199855650.
    4. James K. Galbraith & Jaehee Choi & Béatrice Halbach & Aleksandra Malinowska & Wenjie Zhang, 2016. "A Comparison of Major World Inequality Data Sets: LIS, OECD, EU-SILC, WDI, and EHII," Research in Labor Economics, in: Income Inequality Around the World, volume 44, pages 1-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. James K. Galbraith & J. Travis Hale, 2008. "State Income Inequality and Presidential Election Turnout and Outcomes," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(4), pages 887-901, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pinar Deniz & Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2021. "Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 323-352, April.
    2. Della Porta, Donatella & Galbraith, James & Pianta, Mario, 2022. "Introduction to the special issue ‘The political consequences of inequality’," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 389-390.
    3. Porta, Donatella Della & Portos, Martín, 2020. "Social movements in times of inequalities: Struggling against austerity in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 116-126.

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