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On using dynamic IO models with layers of techniques to measure value added in global value chains

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  • Gurgul, Henryk
  • Lach, Łukasz

Abstract

We propose a new approach to forecasting the future paths of value-added-related indexes in the framework of global value chains (GVCs) in a global input-output model. The proposed methodology may be applied to different groups of counties and sectors in a global IO framework under various scenarios regarding technological progress. In an illustrative empirical case study, we focus on four groups of economies and seven groups of sectors. The preliminary results suggest that the East Asian economies, AUNAFTA, and the EU countries are expected to improve the efficiency in building their comparative advantage within the GVC framework, while the largest developing economies are not.

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  • Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2018. "On using dynamic IO models with layers of techniques to measure value added in global value chains," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 155-170.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:47:y:2018:i:c:p:155-170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2018.07.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhang, Wei & Zhang, Ting & Li, Hangyu & Zhang, Han, 2022. "Dynamic spillover capacity of R&D and digital investments in China's manufacturing industry under long-term technological progress based on the industry chain perspective," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Araújo, Inácio Fernandes de & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues, 2021. "Regional and global patterns of participation in value chains: Evidence from Brazil," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 154-171.
    4. Chen, Quanrun & Chen, Xikang & Pei, Jiansuo & Yang, Cuihong & Zhu, Kunfu, 2020. "Estimating domestic content in China’s exports: Accounting for a dual-trade regime," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-54.
    5. Zhiheng Wu & Guisheng Hou & Baogui Xin, 2020. "Has the Belt and Road Initiative Brought New Opportunities to Countries Along the Routes to Participate in Global Value Chains?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440209, January.
    6. Qingqing Cai & Li Li, 2022. "Path Selection and Optimization of Chinese Manufacturing Industry Participating in Global Value Chain Reconstruction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous dynamics; World input-output data; Global value chains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

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