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A stochastic optimal stopping model for storable commodity prices

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  • Karimi, Nader
  • Salavati, Erfan
  • Assa, Hirbod
  • Adibi, Hojatollah

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a continuous time version of the well-known speculative storage model for commodity prices. But from the mathematical point of view this is not a trivial extension and needs careful consideration of the theory of stochastic stopping time combined with fixed point theory. We formulate the problem in a manner that the main objective of the storage model, known as the stationary rational expectations equilibrium (SREE), becomes a fixed-point of an operator which solves a free boundary problem and show that this operator under some conditions is a contraction. We also demonstrate the benefits of our continuous time model through a numerical algorithm.

Suggested Citation

  • Karimi, Nader & Salavati, Erfan & Assa, Hirbod & Adibi, Hojatollah, 2024. "A stochastic optimal stopping model for storable commodity prices," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:204:y:2024:i:c:s0167715223001657
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2023.109941
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    References listed on IDEAS

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