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Clinical forecasting: Towards a sociology of prognosis

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  • Timmermans, Stefan
  • Stivers, Tanya

Abstract

Much of our understanding of prognosis in clinical settings comes from end-of-life situations but prognostication is also a concern in chronic illnesses. Parents of children living with seizures wonder what the future holds: will the child outgrow their seizures, or will they remain a part of their child's life? Based on video recordings of clinic consultations between pediatric neurologists and families, we examine how clinicians convey a child's prognosis. We find that neurologists mainly communicate the prognosis indirectly through the goals they set for the child, the time frame of attaining these goals, and the uncertainties they highlight regarding the attainability of the goals. By modulating goals and erring on the side of optimism, clinicians maintain a collaborative relationship even if the prognosis turns increasingly dire.

Suggested Citation

  • Timmermans, Stefan & Stivers, Tanya, 2018. "Clinical forecasting: Towards a sociology of prognosis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 13-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:218:y:2018:i:c:p:13-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.09.031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christakis, Nicholas A., 1997. "The ellipsis of prognosis in modern medical thought," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 301-315, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hauge, Amalie M., 2020. "One last round of chemo? Insights from conversations between oncologists and lung cancer patients about prognosis and treatment decisions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    2. Gutin, Iliya, 2022. "Not ‘putting a name to it’: Managing uncertainty in the diagnosis of childhood obesity," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    3. Armstrong, David, 2019. "Diagnosis: From classification to prediction," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Menchik, Daniel A. & Giaquinta, Maya, 2024. "The words we die by," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).

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