Forecasting stock market volatility under parameter and model uncertainty
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102084
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008.
"A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2412, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2006.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch & Athanasse Zafirov, 2021. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction II," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-85, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen & Allan Timmermann, 2012.
"Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation,"
CREATES Research Papers
2012-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Peter Reinhard HANSEN & Allan TIMMERMANN, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/10, European University Institute.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014.
"Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008.
"Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
- Campbell, John & Thompson, Samuel P., 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Scholarly Articles 2622619, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
- Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015.
"Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
- Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," CEMA Working Papers 676, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhu, You & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Gong, Jue, 2024. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities: A shrinkage heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with a large cross-market predictor set," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 673-711.
- Gong, Jue & Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "How do market volatility and risk aversion sentiment inter-influence over time? Evidence from Chinese SSE 50 ETF options," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
- Díaz, Juan D. & Hansen, Erwin & Cabrera, Gabriel, 2024. "Machine-learning stock market volatility: Predictability, drivers, and economic value," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
- Ma, Yao & Yang, Baochen & Ye, Tao, 2024. "Quality acceleration and cross-sectional returns: Empirical evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Kuntz, Laura-Chloé, 2020. "Beta dispersion and market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 235-256.
- Bätje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Predicting the equity premium via its components," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145789, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019.
"Manager sentiment and stock returns,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
- Fuwei Jiang & Joshua Lee & Xiumin Martin & Guofu Zhou, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," CEMA Working Papers 677, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Baltas, Nick & Karyampas, Dimitrios, 2018. "Forecasting the equity risk premium: The importance of regime-dependent evaluation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 83-102.
- Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2021. "Cash conversion cycle and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
- Kuntz, Laura-Chloé, 2020. "Beta dispersion and market timing," Discussion Papers 46/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
- Su, Yuandong & Lu, Xinjie & Zeng, Qing & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Good air quality and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
- Smith, Simon C., 2021. "International stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
- He, Mengxi & Wen, Danyan & Xing, Lu & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Industry volatility concentration and the predictability of aggregate stock market volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
- Yaojie Zhang & Feng Ma & Chao Liang & Yi Zhang, 2021. "Good variance, bad variance, and stock return predictability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4410-4423, July.
- Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016.
"Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors,"
Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers)
06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2017. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017, Bank of Finland.
- , & Stein, Tobias, 2021.
"Equity premium predictability over the business cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil prices: A scaled PCA approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
- João F. Caldeira & Rangan Gupta & Hudson S. Torrent, 2020.
"Forecasting U.S. Aggregate Stock Market Excess Return: Do Functional Data Analysis Add Economic Value?,"
Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
- Joao F. Caldeira & Rangan Gupta & Hudson S. Torrent, 2020. "Forecasting U.S. Aggregate Stock Market Excess Return: Do Functional Data Analysis Add Economic Value?," Working Papers 202087, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Yongan Xu & Jianqiong Wang & Zhonglu Chen & Chao Liang, 2023. "Sentiment indices and stock returns: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1063-1080, January.
- Xing, Li-Min & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil prices with shrinkage methods: Can nonconvex penalty and Huber loss help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
- Wen, Danyan & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: A comprehensive look at uncertainty variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1022-1041.
- Lin, Qi, 2018. "Technical analysis and stock return predictability: An aligned approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 103-123.
More about this item
Keywords
Stock market volatility; Parameter uncertainty; Model uncertainty; Forecast combination; Dynamic model averaging;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:66:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923002106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.