IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/24676.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mood Betas and Seasonalities in Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • David Hirshleifer
  • Danling Jiang
  • Yuting Meng

Abstract

Existing research has documented cross-sectional seasonality of stock returns—the periodic outperformance of certain stocks during the same calendar months or weekdays. A model in which assets differ in their sensitivities to investor mood explains these effects and implies other seasonal patterns. We find that relative performance across individual stocks or stock portfolios during past high or low mood months and weekdays tends to recur/reverse in periods with congruent/noncongruent mood. Furthermore, assets with higher sensitivities to aggregate mood—higher mood betas — subsequently earn higher/lower returns during high/low mood periods, including those induced by Daylight Saving Time changes, weather conditions and anticipation of major holidays.

Suggested Citation

  • David Hirshleifer & Danling Jiang & Yuting Meng, 2018. "Mood Betas and Seasonalities in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 24676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24676
    Note: AP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w24676.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    3. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    4. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.
    5. Chhaochharia, Vidhi & Kim, Dasol & Korniotis, George M. & Kumar, Alok, 2019. "Mood, firm behavior, and aggregate economic outcomes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 427-450.
    6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    7. Adriana Breaban & Charles N Noussair, 2018. "Emotional State and Market Behavior [Bubbling with excitement: en experiment]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 279-309.
    8. Frazzini, Andrea & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2014. "Betting against beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 1-25.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2018. "Extrapolation and bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 203-227.
    11. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2003. "Limited attention, information disclosure, and financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 337-386, December.
    12. John Helliwell & Shun Wang, 2014. "Weekends and Subjective Well-Being," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 389-407, April.
    13. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim & Veld, Chris & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia, 2015. "Do Happy People Make Optimistic Investors?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1-2), pages 145-168, April.
    14. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    15. Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "The January Effect," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 197-201, Summer.
    16. Ed Dehaan & Joshua Madsen & Joseph D. Piotroski, 2017. "Do Weather‐Induced Moods Affect the Processing of Earnings News?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 509-550, June.
    17. Anna Bassi & Riccardo Colacito & Paolo Fulghieri, 2013. "'O Sole Mio: An Experimental Analysis of Weather and Risk Attitudes in Financial Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1824-1852.
    18. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    19. Kelley Bergsma & Danling Jiang, 2016. "Cultural New Year Holidays and Stock Returns around the World," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 3-35, March.
    20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    21. Heston, Steven L. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Seasonality in the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 418-445, February.
    22. Stefano Dellavigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Investor Inattention and Friday Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 709-749, April.
    23. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D. & Wermers, Russ, 2017. "Seasonal Asset Allocation: Evidence from Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 71-109, February.
    24. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2016. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-26.
    25. Heston, Steven L. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2010. "Seasonality in the Cross Section of Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(5), pages 1133-1160, October.
    26. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    27. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim & Alok Kumar & Qin Wang, 2015. "Weather-Induced Mood, Institutional Investors, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 73-111.
    28. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    29. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
    30. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2010. "Sentiment and stock prices: The case of aviation disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 174-201, February.
    31. Matti Keloharju & Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Peter Nyberg, 2016. "Return Seasonalities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1557-1590, August.
    32. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    33. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    34. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    35. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December.
    36. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    37. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, August.
    38. Kent D. Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 921-965, June.
    39. Samuel M. Hartzmark & David H. Solomon, 2018. "Recurring Firm Events and Predictable Returns: The Within-Firm Time Series," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 499-517, November.
    40. Birru, Justin, 2018. "Day of the week and the cross-section of returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 182-214.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, February.
    2. Autore, Don M. & Jiang, Danling, 2019. "The preholiday corporate announcement effect," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 61-82.
    3. Yuan Li, 2022. "Mood Beta, Sentiment and Stock Returns in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, February.
    4. Birru, Justin, 2018. "Day of the week and the cross-section of returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 182-214.
    5. Nguyen, Hung T. & Pham, Mia Hang, 2021. "Air pollution and behavioral biases: Evidence from stock market anomalies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    6. Chiah, Mardy & Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2023. "Trade competitiveness and the aggregate returns in global stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Gould, John & Yang, Joey W. & Singh, Ranjodh & Yeo, Ben, 2023. "The seasonality of lottery-like stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 383-400.
    8. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    9. Bradrania, Reza & Gao, Ya, 2024. "Lottery demand, weather and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    10. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk & Kirli, Imra, 2023. "Mood seasonality around the globe," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2016. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-26.
    12. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    13. Tingqiu Cao & Xianhang Qian & Le Zhang, 2024. "The price of the slow lane: Traffic congestion and stock block trading premium," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 30-52, March.
    14. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Öztürkkal, Belma, 2020. "Does mood affect institutional herding?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    15. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Zawadka, Dariusz, 2020. "Business sentiment and the cross-section of global equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    16. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Cohen, Gil, 2020. "Everybody likes shopping, including the US capital market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    17. Shafi, Kourosh & Mohammadi, Ali, 2020. "Too gloomy to invest: Weather-induced mood and crowdfunding," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Garel, Alexandre & Indriawan, Ivan, 2020. "Music sentiment and stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    19. Chiah, Mardy & Zhong, Angel, 2021. "Tuesday Blues and the day-of-the-week effect in stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Wu, Runze, 2022. "Sports Mood Index, institutional investors, and earnings announcement anomalies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24676. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.