IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v52y2020ics0275531919307743.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Historical evolution of monthly anomalies in international stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Plastun, Alex
  • Sibande, Xolani
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Abstract

This paper is a comprehensive investigation of the evolution of various monthly anomalies (January effect, December effect, and the Mark Twain effect) in the US stock market for its entire history. This is done using various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student's t-test, ANOVA, the Mann–Whitney test) and a trading simulation approach). To confirm our results we extended the analysis to the UK, Japan, Canada, France, Switzerland, Germany and Italy stock markets. The results indicate that the January effect was most prevalent in the US and that the December effect and the Mark Twain effect were never prevalent in the US. This result was confirmed in other markets as well. The January effect was most prevalent in the middle of the 20th century but has since disappeared. Furthermore, the January effect provided exploitable profit opportunities. Our results are consistent and add to the existing literature through the use of a complete history of the US market. Overall, the US stock market is consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Historical evolution of monthly anomalies in international stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s0275531919307743
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.101127
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531919307743
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.101127?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moller, Nicholas & Zilca, Shlomo, 2008. "The evolution of the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 447-457, March.
    2. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1983. "Transaction costs and the small firm effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 57-79, June.
    3. Harjeet S Bhabra & Upinder S Dhillon & Gabriel G Ramirez, 1999. "A November Effect? Revisiting the Tax-Loss-Selling Hypothesis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 28(4), Winter.
    4. T. C. Mills & C. Siriopoulos & R. N. Markellos & D. Harizanis, 2000. "Seasonality in the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 137-142.
    5. Blume, Marshall E. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1983. "Biases in computed returns : An application to the size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 387-404, November.
    6. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Rise and fall of calendar anomalies over a century," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 181-205.
    7. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    8. Bing Zhang & Xindan Li, 2006. "Do Calendar Effects Still Exist in the Chinese Stock Markets?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 151-163.
    9. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    10. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    11. Gu, Anthony Yanxiang, 2003. "The declining January effect: evidences from the U.S. equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 395-404.
    12. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October.
    13. Mustafa Gultekin & Bulent Gultekin, "undated". "Stock Market Seasonality: Internal Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 17-83, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    14. Wessel Marquering & Johan Nisser & Toni Valla, 2006. "Disappearing anomalies: a dynamic analysis of the persistence of anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 291-302.
    15. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    16. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2001. "Month of the Year Effect and January Effect in Pre-WWI Stock Returns: Evidence from a Non-linear GARCH Model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, January.
    17. Bouteska Ahmed & Regaieg Boutheina, 2017. "Financial market anomalies: evidence from Tunisia stock market," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(9), pages 238-250, September.
    18. Chang, Eric C. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 1990. "Stock Market Seasonals and Prespecified Multifactor Pricing Relations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 517-533, December.
    19. Sidney B. Wachtel, 1942. "Certain Observations on Seasonal Movements in Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15, pages 184-184.
    20. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    21. Agrawal, Anup & Tandon, Kishore, 1994. "Anomalies or illusions? Evidence from stock markets in eighteen countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-106, February.
    22. Gultekin, Mustafa N. & Gultekin, N. Bulent, 1983. "Stock market seasonality : International Evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 469-481, December.
    23. Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "The January Effect," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 197-201, Summer.
    24. Ercan Balaban, 1995. "January Effect, Yes. What About Mark Twain Effect?," Discussion Papers 9509, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    25. Marshall Blume & Robert Stambaugh, "undated". "Biases in Computed Returns: An Application to the Size Effect (Revision of 2-83)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-83, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    26. Roll, Richard, 1983. "On computing mean returns and the small firm premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 371-386, November.
    27. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    28. Bouteska Ahmed & Regaieg Boutheina, 2017. "Financial Market Anomalies: Evidence from Tunisia Stock Market," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(9), pages 230-250.
    29. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Calendar Anomalies in an Emerging African Market: Evidence from the Ghana Stock Exchange," Discussion Paper Series 2006_13, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2006.
    30. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.
    31. Urquhart, Andrew & Hudson, Robert, 2013. "Efficient or adaptive markets? Evidence from major stock markets using very long run historic data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-142.
    32. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nisani, Doron & Eichel, Ron, 2022. "Irregularities in forward-looking volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 489-501.
    2. Ivan S. Blahun & Lesia Dmytryshyn & Ivan I. Blahun & Semen Blahun, 2022. "Stock Indices as Indicators of Market Efficiency and Interaction," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 87-106.
    3. Plastun, Alex & Bouri, Elie & Havrylina, Ahniia & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Calendar anomalies in passion investments: Price patterns and profit opportunities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Rise and fall of calendar anomalies over a century," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 181-205.
    2. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Calendar effects, market conditions and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from long-run U.S. data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 154-166.
    3. Nisar, Sabahat & Asif, Rabia & Ali, Amjad, 2021. "Testing the Presence of the January Effect in Developed Economies," MPRA Paper 112548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Cameron Truong, 2013. "The January effect, does options trading matter?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 31-48, April.
    5. Robert J. Sweeney & Robert F. Scherer & Janet Goulet & Waldemar M. Goulet, 1996. "Investment Behavior and the Small Firm Effect," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 5(3), pages 251-269, Fall.
    6. Moller, Nicholas & Zilca, Shlomo, 2008. "The evolution of the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 447-457, March.
    7. Arbab Khalid Cheema & Wenjie Ding & Qingwei Wang, 2023. "The cross-section of January effect," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(6), pages 513-530, October.
    8. Mehmet Hasan Eken & Taylan Ozgür Uner, 2010. "Calendar Effects in the Stock Market and a Practice Relatedn to the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market (ISEM)," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 59-95.
    9. Alin Marius ANDRIEŞ & Iulian IHNATOV & Nicu SPRINCEAN, 2017. "Do Seasonal Anomalies Still Exist In Central And Eastern European Countries? A Conditional Variance Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 60-83, December.
    10. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    11. Vesna Karadžic & Tamara Backovic Vulic, 2011. "The Montenegrin Capital Market: Calendar Anomalies," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(191), pages 107-122, October-D.
    12. Al-Khazali, Osamah & Mirzaei, Ali, 2017. "Stock market anomalies, market efficiency and the adaptive market hypothesis: Evidence from Islamic stock indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 190-208.
    13. A. R. Zafer Sayar & Onder Kaymaz & Ali Alp, 2010. "The Effect of the Transparency Level of the ISE-Listed Banks on Liquidity," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 27-58.
    14. Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Halari, Anwar & Helliar, Christine & Power, David, 2018. "East meets West: When the Islamic and Gregorian calendars coincide," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 402-424.
    15. repec:bor:iserev:v:12:y:2012:i:45:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Girardin, Eric & Salimi Namin, Fatemeh, 2019. "The January effect in the foreign exchange market: Evidence for seasonal equity carry trades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-439.
    17. Cristina Ortiz & Gloria Ramirez & Luis Vicente, 2010. "Quarterly return patterns in the Spanish stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(23), pages 1829-1838.
    18. Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis with calendar effects:Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    19. Fatta Bahadur K.C. Ph. D. & Nayan Krishna Joshi, 2005. "The Nepalese Stock Market: Efficient and Calendar Anomalies," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 17, pages 40-85, April.
    20. repec:bor:iserev:v:12:y:2012:i:45:p:59-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Faruk Bostanci & Saim Kilic, 2010. "The Effects of Free Float Ratios on Market Performance: An Empirical Study on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 1-14.
    22. Seif, Mostafa & Docherty, Paul & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Seasonal anomalies in advanced emerging stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 169-181.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Calendar anomalies; Month of the year effect; Stock market; Efficient Market Hypothesis; January effect; December effect; Mark Twain effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s0275531919307743. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.