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Time-varying impacts of demand and supply oil shocks on correlations between crude oil prices and stock markets indices

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  • Nadal, Raquel
  • Szklo, Alexandre
  • Lucena, André

Abstract

This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of demand and supply oil shocks on correlations between changes in crude oil prices and stock markets returns. The findings, obtained by means of a DCC-GARCH from June 2006 to June 2016, indicate that demand shocks positively affected the correlations between crude oil prices and stock market returns from late 2007 to mid-2008, during the apex of the financial markets volatility; from early 2009 to mid-2013, during global economy recovery from the financial crisis; and after 2015, when uncertainties about the Chinese growth and the US economy upturning arose. The dynamic conditional correlation, obtained after the removal of demand shocks effects, presented an average value of 0.13 when all economy sectors were considered and of 0.03 when the energy sector returns were excluded from the stock index. These correlations, still positive on average, suggest that exogenous supply oil shocks had little impact on US mainly enterprises cash flows over the last 10 years. Exceptions are the periods from 2006 to financial crisis and from 2014 until April 2016, when significant and unpredicted changes in oil market happened, considerably affecting the value of the main US companies.

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  • Nadal, Raquel & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucena, André, 2017. "Time-varying impacts of demand and supply oil shocks on correlations between crude oil prices and stock markets indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1011-1020.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1011-1020
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.037
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    2. Yufeng Chen & Wenqi Li & Xi Jin, 2018. "Volatility Spillovers between Crude Oil Prices and New Energy Stock Price in China," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 43-62, December.
    3. Liu, Zhenhua & Tseng, Hui-Kuan & Wu, Jy S. & Ding, Zhihua, 2020. "Implied volatility relationships between crude oil and the U.S. stock markets: Dynamic correlation and spillover effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Krzysztof Drachal, 2022. "Forecasting the Crude Oil Spot Price with Bayesian Symbolic Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29, December.
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    7. Singh, Vipul Kumar & Kumar, Pawan & Nishant, Shreyank, 2019. "Feedback spillover dynamics of crude oil and global assets indicators: A system-wide network perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 321-335.
    8. McMillan, David G. & Ziadat, Salem Adel & Herbst, Patrick, 2021. "The role of oil as a determinant of stock market interdependence: The case of the USA and GCC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2021. "Energy commodities and advanced stock markets: A post-crisis approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Samuel D. Barrows, 2020. "Did the US Shale Oil Revolution Ruin Oil Industry Stock Market Returns?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 1-8.
    11. Li, Jiang-Cheng & Xu, Ming-Zhe & Han, Xu & Tao, Chen, 2022. "Dynamic risk resonance between crude oil and stock market by econophysics and machine learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 607(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Oil prices; DCC-GARCH; Demand shocks; Supply oil shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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