IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v61y2017icp42-51.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil prices and stock markets: Does the effect of uncertainty change over time?

Author

Listed:
  • Joo, Young C.
  • Park, Sung Y.

Abstract

This paper investigates empirical marginal effects of uncertainty measured by conditional variance of the stock and crude oil prices on their returns using stock index prices for U.S., Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong over the period 1996–2015. A time-varying parameter model with a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) bivariate GARCH-in-Mean specification is considered to investigate time-varying marginal effects of uncertainty on the stock and crude oil returns. The empirical findings show that there exist significant negative time-varying effects of uncertainty on the returns over some sub-periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Joo, Young C. & Park, Sung Y., 2017. "Oil prices and stock markets: Does the effect of uncertainty change over time?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 42-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:42-51
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.10.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988316302985
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.10.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
    2. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Oil price uncertainty in Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 852-856, November.
    3. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    5. Park, Joon Y. & Hahn, Sang B., 1999. "Cointegrating Regressions With Time Varying Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 664-703, October.
    6. Awartani, Basel & Aktham, Maghyereh & Cherif, Guermat, 2016. "The connectedness between crude oil and financial markets: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 56-69.
    7. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
    8. Yoosoon Chang & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park & Sungkeun Park, 2014. "Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand," Working Papers 1409, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    9. Sadorsky, Perry, 2014. "Modeling volatility and correlations between emerging market stock prices and the prices of copper, oil and wheat," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 72-81.
    10. Karl Pinno and Apostolos Serletis, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Industrial Production," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    11. Conrad, Christian & Loch, Karin & Rittler, Daniel, 2014. "On the macroeconomic determinants of long-term volatilities and correlations in U.S. stock and crude oil markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 26-40.
    12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    13. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    14. Diaz, Elena Maria & Molero, Juan Carlos & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2016. "Oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 417-430.
    15. Bauwens, Luc & Laurent, Sebastien, 2005. "A New Class of Multivariate Skew Densities, With Application to Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 346-354, July.
    16. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2016. "Oil shocks on unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe," Faculty Working Papers 01/16, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    17. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    18. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    19. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    20. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2011. "Volatility In Oil Prices And Manufacturing Activity: An Investigation Of Real Options," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 379-395, November.
    21. Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
    22. repec:clg:wpaper:2013-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Chang, Yoosoon & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y. & Park, Sungkeun, 2014. "Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand with an Application to Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 334-347.
    24. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
    25. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2011. "The Asymmetric Effects Of Oil Price Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 437-471, November.
    26. Park, Sung Y. & Zhao, Guochang, 2010. "An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand: A smooth time-varying cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 110-120, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alsalman, Zeina, 2016. "Oil price uncertainty and the U.S. stock market analysis based on a GARCH-in-mean VAR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 251-260.
    2. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2018. "The zero lower bound and market spillovers: Evidence from the G7 and Norway," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 100-123.
    3. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Xiao, Jihong & Zhou, Min & Wen, Fengming & Wen, Fenghua, 2018. "Asymmetric impacts of oil price uncertainty on Chinese stock returns under different market conditions: Evidence from oil volatility index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 777-786.
    5. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    6. Kumar, Satish & Pradhan, Ashis Kumar & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2019. "Correlations and volatility spillovers between oil, natural gas, and stock prices in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 282-291.
    7. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Selmi, Refk & Hongbing, Ouyang, 2021. "The financial impacts of jump processes in the crude oil price: Evidence from G20 countries in the pre- and post-COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2018. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: volatility spillovers and implications for portfolio management," MPRA Paper 87637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2017. "On the dynamic interactions between energy and stock markets under structural shifts: Evidence from Egypt," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 61-74.
    10. Xiao, Jihong & Hu, Chunyan & Ouyang, Guangda & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Impacts of oil implied volatility shocks on stock implied volatility in China: Empirical evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 297-309.
    11. McMillan, David G. & Ziadat, Salem Adel & Herbst, Patrick, 2021. "The role of oil as a determinant of stock market interdependence: The case of the USA and GCC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Renatas Kizys, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from European Data," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    13. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2013. "Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 116-138.
    14. Kuang, Wei, 2022. "The economic value of high-frequency data in equity-oil hedge," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    15. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    16. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market volatility: evidence from European data," Working Papers 161, Bank of Greece.
    17. Silvapulle, Param & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin & Fenech, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Nonparametric panel data model for crude oil and stock market prices in net oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 255-267.
    18. Ziadat, Salem Adel & McMillan, David G. & Herbst, Patrick, 2022. "Oil shocks and equity returns during bull and bear markets: The case of oil importing and exporting nations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Sunil K. Mohanty & Joseph Onochie & Abdulrahman F. Alshehri, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on stock market returns in Saudi Arabia: evidence from industry level analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 595-619, October.
    20. Balakumar, Suganya & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Do oil price shocks have any implications for stock return momentum?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 637-663.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil returns; Stock returns; Oil uncertainty; Bivariate GARCH-in-Mean model; Time-varying parameter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:42-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.