IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/revfin/v16y2007i2p149-175.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting the macroeconomy with contemporaneous financial market information: Europe and the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Junttila, Juha

Abstract

Using Economic Tracking Portfolios (ETP), I find that it is possible to forecast future values of inflation and changes in industrial production in the United States and three core euro countries – Italy, France and Germany – utilizing only current and past financial market information. The longer the forecasting horizon, the better the forecasts based solely on financial market information compared to results from other methods. Of the countries I analyze, the overall forecasting performance of the tracking portfolios is the best for the U.S., and my method outperforms the forecasting performance of a VAR approach.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Junttila, Juha, 2007. "Forecasting the macroeconomy with contemporaneous financial market information: Europe and the United States," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 149-175.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:16:y:2007:i:2:p:149-175
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1058-3300(06)00022-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    2. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
    3. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    4. Lamont, Owen A., 2001. "Economic tracking portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 161-184, November.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    7. Mr. Torsten M Sloek & Mr. Peter F. Christoffersen, 2000. "Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity?," IMF Working Papers 2000/103, International Monetary Fund.
    8. John M. Griffin, 2002. "Are the Fama and French Factors Global or Country Specific?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 783-803.
    9. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1999. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-19.
    10. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 529-552, November.
    11. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    12. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 529-552, November.
    13. Simon Hayes, 2001. "Leading indicator information in UK equity prices: an assessment of economic tracking portfolios," Bank of England working papers 137, Bank of England.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    15. Kim, Ki-ho, 2003. "Dollar exchange rate and stock price: evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 301-313.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2011. "The role of stock markets vs. the term spread in forecasting macrovariables in Finland," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 124-132, May.
    2. Junttila, Juha & Vataja, Juuso, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 569-583.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Junttila, Juha & Kinnunen, Heli, 2004. "The performance of economic tracking portfolios in an IT-intensive stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 601-623, September.
    2. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Utilizing financial market information in forecasting real growth, inflation and real exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-301, April.
    3. Lamont, Owen A., 2001. "Economic tracking portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 161-184, November.
    4. Francis Ahking, 2003. "Efficient unit root tests of real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-12.
    5. Kim, Jan R. & Lim, Gieyoung, 2016. "Fundamentals and rational bubbles in the Korean housing market: A modified present-value approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 174-181.
    6. Jeng-Bau Lin & Chin-Chia Liang & Wei Tsai, 2019. "Nonlinear Relationships between Oil Prices and Implied Volatilities: Providing More Valuable Information," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
    7. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Zakaria, Muhammad & Hurr, Maryam, 2017. "Carbon emission, energy consumption, trade openness and financial development in Pakistan: A revisit," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 185-192.
    8. Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2018. "Understanding the sources of the exchange rate disconnect puzzle: A variance decomposition approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 267-287.
    9. Ahmed, Osama & Sallam, Walid, 2018. "Studying the volatility effect of agricultural exports on agriculture share of GDP: The case of Egypt," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13(8), pages 345-352.
    10. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    11. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.
    12. Gunnar Bårdsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2012. "Evaluation of Macroeconomic Models for Financial Stability Analysis," Chapters, in: The Challenge of Financial Stability, chapter 3, pages 32-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
    14. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "International Labour Force Participation Rates By Gender: Unit Root Or Structural Breaks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 142-164, May.
    15. Abdelradi, Fadi & Serra, Teresa, 2015. "Food–energy nexus in Europe: Price volatility approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 157-167.
    16. Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "Capital mobility in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 386-403.
    17. Mei-Se Chien, 2010. "Structural Breaks and the Convergence of Regional House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, January.
    18. Heimonen, Kari & Junttila, Juha & Kärkkäinen, Samu, 2017. "Stock market and exchange rate information in the Taylor rule: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-18.
    19. Philip Arestis & Ambika D. Luintel & Kul B. Luintel, 2004. "Does Financial Structure Matter?," Finance 0401006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:16:y:2007:i:2:p:149-175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.