IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v89y2024ipap975-1008.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy in China: A Factor Augmented VAR approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yemba, Boniface
  • Kitenge, Erick
  • Tang, Biyan
  • Gaekwad, Neepa B.

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy. We employ the data-rich Factor Augmented VAR (FAVAR) model to address the paucity of Chinese data. We find that the Divisia monetary aggregate M2 (DMA2) that considers both the quantity of monetary assets and the user-cost of the money/forgone interest rate is more effective in boosting economic activities and prices than other instruments (e.g., interest rate, simple money supply M2, and required reserve ratio). These other instruments produce outcomes that contradict theoretical predictions in at least one area. Therefore, we suggest the use of the DMA2 to steer the performance of the Chinese economy effectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Yemba, Boniface & Kitenge, Erick & Tang, Biyan & Gaekwad, Neepa B., 2024. "Monetary policy in China: A Factor Augmented VAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 975-1008.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:89:y:2024:i:pa:p:975-1008
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2023.07.088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105905602300299X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2023.07.088?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sun, Rongrong, 2013. "Does monetary policy matter in China? A narrative approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 56-74.
    2. He, Dong & Wang, Honglin, 2012. "Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 928-947.
    3. Jushan Bai & Kunpeng Li & Lina Lu, 2016. "Estimation and Inference of FAVAR Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 620-641, October.
    4. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Index Number and Aggregation Theory," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 11-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 255-269, April.
    6. Keating, John W. & Kelly, Logan J. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2014. "Solving the price puzzle with an alternative indicator of monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 188-194.
    7. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit‐Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
    8. William A. Barnett, 2000. "The Optimal Level of Monetary Aggregation," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 125-149, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    10. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
    11. Sun, Lixin & Ford, J.L. & Dickinson, David G., 2010. "Bank loans and the effects of monetary policy in China: VAR/VECM approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 65-97, March.
    12. William Barnett & Barry E. Jones & Travis D. Nesmith, 2008. "Divisia Second Moments: An Application of Stochastic Index Number Theory," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200803, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008.
    13. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2014. "The Barnett critique after three decades: A New Keynesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 5-21.
    14. Boniface Pepino Yemba, 2017. "Tax and monetary policy rules in a small open economy with disaggregated government purchases," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 144-182.
    15. Heipertz, Jonas & Rancière, Romain & Valla, Natacha, 2019. "Domestic and external sectoral portfolios: Network structure and balance-sheet contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 206-226.
    16. Rongrong Sun, 2018. "A Narrative indicator of Monetary Conditions in China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, September.
    17. Mehrotra, Aaron N., 2007. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era--Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 188-210, March.
    18. Chen, Hongyi & Chow, Kenneth & Tillmann, Peter, 2017. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 216-231.
    19. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2018. "The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3891-3936, December.
    20. Xiong, Weibo, 2012. "Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 512-533.
    21. William A. Barnett & Biyan Tang, 2016. "Chinese Divisia Monetary Index and GDP Nowcasting," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 825-849, November.
    22. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    23. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 83-103.
    24. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. B.P. Yemba & B. Tang & E Kitenge & J. Nsumbu, 2020. "Divisia monetary aggregate and monetary transmission mechanism in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 291-297, February.
    26. Chengcheng Liu & Peng Song & Bai Huang, 2019. "The dynamic effectiveness of monetary policy in China: evidence from a TVP-SV-FAVAR model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(17), pages 1402-1410, October.
    27. Dieppe, Alistair & Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jenny & Korhonen, Iikka & Lodge, David, 2018. "The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    28. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2006. "The Own-Price of Money and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 429-445, March.
    29. Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.
    30. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2019. "Efficient Dynamic Yield Curve Estimation in Emerging Financial Markets," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2019/4, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    31. William A. Barnett, 2000. "The User Cost of Money," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 6-10, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    32. De Paoli, Bianca & Sondergaard, Jens, 2009. "Foreign exchange rate risk in a small open economy," Bank of England working papers 365, Bank of England.
    33. Stephanie Schmitt†Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2018. "How Important Are Terms†Of†Trade Shocks?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 85-111, February.
    34. Sun, Rongrong, 2015. "What measures Chinese monetary policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 263-286.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiong, Youlin & Shen, Jun & Yoon, Seong-Min & Dong, Xiyong, 2024. "Macroeconomic determinants of the long-term correlation between stock and exchange rate markets in China: A DCC-MIDAS-X approach considering structural breaks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Huan & Ni, Jinlan & Xu, Yueli & Zhan, Minghua, 2021. "Monetary policy and its transmission channels: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Michael Funke & Andrew Tsang, 2021. "The Direction and Intensity of China’s Monetary Policy: A Dynamic Factor Modelling Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(316), pages 100-122, March.
    3. Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew, 2019. "The direction and intensity of China's monetary policy conduct: A dynamic factor modelling approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Stefan Angrick & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2020. "From Window Guidance to Interbank Rates: Tracing the Transition of Monetary Policy in Japan and China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 279-316, June.
    5. Chen, Hongyi & Chow, Kenneth & Tillmann, Peter, 2017. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 216-231.
    6. Chen, Zhengyang & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2021. "Monetary transmission in money markets: The not-so-elusive missing piece of the puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Soyoung Kim & Hongyi Chen, 2022. "From a Quantity to an Interest Rate‐Based Framework: Multiple Monetary Policy Instruments and Their Effects in China," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2103-2123, October.
    8. Makram El-Shagi & Yishuo Ma, 2021. "Nine blind men and the PBoC," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2021/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    9. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva‐Leon & Liting Su, 2024. "The Credit‐Card‐Services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 1163-1202, August.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2023. "How the PBoC´s new MLF affects the yield curve," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2023/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    13. Han, Qian & Song, Zhaogang & Yuan, Yufei & Zhao, Yuanhang, 2023. "Monetary transmission and government investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew, 2019. "The direction and intensity of China's monetary policy conduct: A dynamic factor modelling approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Stefan Angrick & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2020. "From Window Guidance to Interbank Rates: Tracing the Transition of Monetary Policy in Japan and China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 279-316, June.
    18. William A. Barnett & Van H. Nguyen, 2021. "Constructing Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Singapore," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, August.
    19. William A. Barnett & Biyan Tang, 2016. "Chinese Divisia Monetary Index and GDP Nowcasting," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 825-849, November.
    20. William A. Barnett & Neepa B. Gaekwad, 2018. "The Demand for Money for EMU: a Flexible Functional Form Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 353-371, April.
    21. Neepa Gaekwad & William Barnett, 2024. "Multilateral Divisia monetary aggregates for the Euro area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(3), pages 1224-1241.
    22. William A. Barnett & Liting Su, 2014. "The Joint Services of Money and Credit," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201407, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; FAVAR; Chinese economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:89:y:2024:i:pa:p:975-1008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.