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Solving the price puzzle with an alternative indicator of monetary policy

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  • Keating, John W.
  • Kelly, Logan J.
  • Valcarcel, Victor J.

Abstract

We identify the effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variables in VARs using the Divisia M4 measure of money as the policy indicator variable. We obtain theoretically sensible responses—whether or not a commodity price index is included. Thus, we eliminate the well-known empirical puzzles from the VAR by a novel choice in a policy variable, rather than the usual attachment of an ad hoc variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Keating, John W. & Kelly, Logan J. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2014. "Solving the price puzzle with an alternative indicator of monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 188-194.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:124:y:2014:i:2:p:188-194
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.05.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. John W. Keating & Logan J. Kelly & A. Lee Smith & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2019. "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 227-259, February.
    14. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis in models without money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 145-164.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Snezana Eminidou & Marios Zachariadis, 2019. "Firms’ Expectations and Monetary Policy Shocks in the Eurozone," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 02-2019, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    2. Ghosh, Taniya & Bhadury, Soumya, 2018. "Money's causal role in exchange rate: Do divisia monetary aggregates explain more?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 402-417.
    3. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in the US: A journey into nonlinear territory," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1106-1128, July.
    4. Makram El-Shagi, 2024. "Does the Fed Adhere to its Mandate? Estimating the Federal Reserve's Objective Function," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/3, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    5. Chen, Zhengyang & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2021. "Monetary transmission in money markets: The not-so-elusive missing piece of the puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Tae-Hwan Kim & Dong Jin Lee & Paul Mizen, 2020. "Impulse Response Analysis in Conditional Quantile Models and an Application to Monetary Policy," Working papers 2020rwp-164, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    7. Zhengyang Chen, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," 2019 Papers pch1858, Job Market Papers.
    8. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2017. "China Monetary Policy Transmission in China: Dual Shocks with Dual Bond Markets," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    9. Zongwu Cai & Xiyuan Liu, 2021. "Solving the Price Puzzle Via A Functional Coefficient Factor-Augmented VAR Model," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202106, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    10. Darvas, Zsolt, 2015. "Does money matter in the euro area? Evidence from a new Divisia index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 123-126.
    11. Roy, Ripon & Bashar, Omar H.N.M. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar, 2023. "The cross-industry effects of monetary policy: New evidence from Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Binner, Jane M. & Chaudhry, Sajid & Kelly, Logan & Swofford, James L., 2018. "“Risky” monetary aggregates for the UK and US," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 127-138.
    14. Giuliano Queiroz Ferreira & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2022. "Regime-dependent price puzzle in the Brazilian economy: evidence from VAR and FAVAR approaches," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-28, September.
    15. Juan S. Holguín & Jorge M. Uribe, 2020. "The credit supply channel of monetary policy: evidence from a FAVAR model with sign restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2443-2472, November.
    16. Durmus Cagri Yildirim & Tugba Turan, 2023. "Revisiting of Interest Rate Channel: Nonlinear transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks to the Turkish Economy," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 12(1), pages 199-223.
    17. Yemba, Boniface & Kitenge, Erick & Tang, Biyan & Gaekwad, Neepa B., 2024. "Monetary policy in China: A Factor Augmented VAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 975-1008.
    18. Jane M. Binner & logan J. Kelly, 2017. "Modelling Money Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Taiwan," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85, pages 104-120, September.
    19. Nikolay Arefiev, 2016. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks within a Svar Using Restrictions Consistent with a DSGE Model," HSE Working papers WP BRP 125/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy shocks; Structural VAR; Divisia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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