IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v56y2018icp190-204.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prevention and landing of bubble

Author

Listed:
  • Wan, Junmin

Abstract

By replacing assumptions on the satisfaction of the transversality condition with introducing capital gains taxes, transaction or property taxes, rebate options, and fixed periods of asset usage, rational bubble is shown to be preventable. For an existing bubble, hard- and soft-landings are shown to be possible. Hard landing is defined by a bubble which crashes via financial or tax tools, while soft landing is defined as an increasing bubble reaching some stable value via taxes. Japan, U.S., and Greece experienced real estate bubbles and hard landings, while Taiwan ended its real estate bubble in the 1980s with a soft landing.

Suggested Citation

  • Wan, Junmin, 2018. "Prevention and landing of bubble," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 190-204.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:190-204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2017.10.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105905601730816X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2017.10.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-1151, December.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    3. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-859, July.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hirano, Tomohiro & Inaba, Masaru & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 2015. "Asset bubbles and bailouts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 71-89.
    6. Ikeda, Shinsuke & Shibata, Akihisa, 1992. "Fundamentals-dependent bubbles in stock prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 143-168, October.
    7. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.
    8. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    9. Kazuo Ueda, 2011. "Japan's Bubble, the USA's Bubble and China's Bubble," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 19(1), pages 47-62, January.
    10. Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2723-2753, October.
    11. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1079-1134, November.
    12. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    13. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1996. "Capital Gains in Japan: Their Magnitude and Impact on Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 560-577, May.
    14. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    15. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    16. Luigi Montrucchio, 2004. "Cass transversality condition and sequential asset bubbles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(3), pages 645-663, October.
    17. Ogawa, Kazuo & Wan, Junmin, 2007. "Household debt and consumption: A quantitative analysis based on household micro data for Japan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 127-142, June.
    18. Samuel G. Hanson & Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2011. "A Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    19. Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," Working Papers 1398, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    20. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    21. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    22. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2010. "Is There a Bubble in the Chinese Housing Market?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1081, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    24. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2012. "Causes of banking crises: Deregulation, credit booms and asset bubbles, then and now," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 270-294.
    25. Gelain, Paolo, 2010. "The external finance premium in the Euro area: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 49-71, March.
    26. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.
    27. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    28. Barro, Robert J, 1976. "The Loan Market, Collateral, and Rates of Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(4), pages 439-456, November.
    29. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    30. Berger, Allen N. & Frame, W. Scott & Ioannidou, Vasso, 2016. "Reexamining the empirical relation between loan risk and collateral: The roles of collateral liquidity and types," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 28-46.
    31. Burgenmeier, B, 1994. "The Misperception of Walras," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 342-352, March.
    32. Paul B. Trescott, 1994. "Henry George, Sun Yat‐sen and China: More Than Land Policy Was Involved," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 363-375, July.
    33. Stiglitz, J.E., 1989. "Using Tax Policy To Curb Speculative Short-Term Trading," Papers t2, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    34. Joseph E Stiglitz, 2009. "The Current Economic Crisis and Lessons for Economic Theory," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 281-296.
    35. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    36. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Pengfei & Zhou, Jing, 2015. "Asset bubbles, collateral, and policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 57-70.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Biagini & Andrea Mazzon & Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Katharina Oberpriller, 2022. "Liquidity based modeling of asset price bubbles via random matching," Papers 2210.13804, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    2. Wan, Junmin & Qiu, Qiqi, 2023. "Industrial investments and housing prices in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 832-852.
    3. Wan, Junmin, 2024. "Bubble occurrence and landing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Wan, Junmin, 2018. "Non-performing loans and housing prices in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-42.
    5. Czerniak, Adam & Borowski, Jakub & Boratyński, Jakub & Rosati, Dariusz, 2020. "Asset price bubbles in a monetary union: Mind the convergence gap," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 288-302.
    6. Wan, Junmin, 2024. "Transmission of housing bubbles among industrial sectors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 692-701.
    7. Theodosios Perifanis, 2019. "Detecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Prices’ Bubble Periods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wan, Junmin, 2024. "Bubble occurrence and landing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    3. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2018. "Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2018. "Extrapolation and bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 203-227.
    8. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Julia Rose & Lauren Cohen, 2020. "Bubbles and Financial Professionals," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2659-2696.
    9. Hirota, Shinichi & Huber, Juergen & Stöckl, Thomas & Sunder, Shyam, 2022. "Speculation, money supply and price indeterminacy in financial markets: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1275-1296.
    10. Hirota, Shinichi & Sunder, Shyam, 2007. "Price bubbles sans dividend anchors: Evidence from laboratory stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1875-1909, June.
    11. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.
    12. Jose A. Scheinkman, 2013. "Speculation, Trading and Bubbles Third Annual Arrow Lecture," Working Papers 1458, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    13. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog, 2022. "Speculative Trading and Bubbles: Evidence from the Art Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 4939-4963, July.
    14. Pavlidis, Efthymios G. & Vasilopoulos, Kostas, 2020. "Speculative bubbles in segmented markets: Evidence from Chinese cross-listed stocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Barlevy, Gadi, 2014. "A leverage-based model of speculative bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 459-505.
    16. Gao, George P. & Lu, Xiaomeng & Song, Zhaogang & Yan, Hongjun, 2019. "Disagreement beta," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 96-113.
    17. Razen, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael, 2017. "Cash inflow and trading horizon in asset markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 359-384.
    18. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    19. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.
    20. Michael Razen & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2016. "Cash Inflow and Trading Horizon in Asset Markets," Working Papers 2016-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble premium; Bubble prevention; Hard landing; Soft landing; Tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D46 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Value Theory
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:190-204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.