IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v29y2014icp273-290.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of monetary policy on stock returns: Financing constraints and “informative” and “uninformative” FOMC statements

Author

Listed:
  • Tsai, Chun-Li

Abstract

We use firm-level data to reexamine the issue of possibly different impacts of “informative” and “uninformative” FOMC statements on stock returns in the period from 1999 to 2007. Our paper finds that stock returns respond significantly to surprise monetary shocks based on the informative FOMC statements; there is little evidence to show that stock returns respond to surprise monetary shocks based on uninformative statements.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsai, Chun-Li, 2014. "The effects of monetary policy on stock returns: Financing constraints and “informative” and “uninformative” FOMC statements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 273-290.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:273-290
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2013.06.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056013000579
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2013.06.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Scharler, Johann, 2008. "Bank lending and the stock market's response to monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 425-435.
    3. Guo, Hui, 2004. "Stock prices, firm size, and changes in the federal funds rate target," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 487-507, September.
    4. Laeven, Luc & Tong, Hui, 2012. "US monetary shocks and global stock prices," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 530-547.
    5. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    6. Hausman, Joshua & Wongswan, Jon, 2011. "Global asset prices and FOMC announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 547-571, April.
    7. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2013. "Expected monetary policy and the dynamics of bank lending rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 542-551.
    8. Rosa, Carlo, 2008. "Talking less and moving the market more: is this the recipe for monetary policy effectiveness?: evidence from the ECB and the Fed," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19629, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    10. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    11. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    12. John Ammer & Clara Vega & Jon Wongswan, 2010. "International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Stock Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 179-198, September.
    13. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
    14. Chuliá, Helena & Martens, Martin & Dijk, Dick van, 2010. "Asymmetric effects of federal funds target rate changes on S&P100 stock returns, volatilities and correlations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 834-839, April.
    15. Lobo, Bento J, 2000. "Asymmetric Effects of Interest Rate Changes on Stock Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 125-143, August.
    16. Kurov, Alexander, 2010. "Investor sentiment and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 139-149, January.
    17. Farka, Mira, 2009. "The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock prices accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-55, January.
    18. Chao, Chi-Chur & Hu, Shih-Wen & Tai, Meng-Yi & Wang, Vey, 2011. "Monetary policy announcements and stock price dynamics in a small open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 520-531, October.
    19. Carlo Rosa, 2011. "Talking Less And Moving The Market More: Evidence From The Ecb And The Fed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(1), pages 51-81, February.
    20. Reeves, Rachel & Sawicki, Michael, 2007. "Do financial markets react to Bank of England communication?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 207-227, March.
    21. Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
    22. Mira Farka, 2011. "The Asymmetric Impact Of “Informative” And “Uninformative” Federal Open Market Committee Statements On Asset Prices," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 469-493, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2015. "The response of stock market volatility to futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 42-54.
    2. Kapp, Daniel & Kristiansen, Kristian, 2021. "Euro area equity risk premia and monetary policy: a longer-term perspective," Working Paper Series 2535, European Central Bank.
    3. Benchimol, Jonathan & Saadon, Yossi & Segev, Nimrod, 2023. "Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Wang, Jiqiang & Dai, Peng-Fei & Zhang, Xuewen, 2024. "Untangling the entanglement of US monetary policy uncertainty and European natural gas and carbon prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Chang, Chong-Chuo, 2018. "Cash conversion cycle and corporate performance: Global evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 568-581.
    6. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "The linkages between oil market uncertainty and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Lin, Boqiang & Pan, Ting, 2024. "Whether green credit is effecitve: a study based on stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 261-274.
    8. Lin, Yi-Mien & Lee, Chih-Chen & Chao, Chin-Fang & Liu, Chih-Liang, 2015. "The information content of unexpected stock returns: Evidence from intellectual capital," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 208-225.
    9. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2015. "How do U.S. stock returns respond differently to oil price shocks pre-crisis, within the financial crisis, and post-crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 47-62.
    10. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    11. Wen, Fenghua & Shui, Aojie & Cheng, Yuxiang & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and stock returns in G7 and BRICS countries: A quantile-on-quantile approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 457-482.
    12. Julio Pindado & Ignacio Requejo & Juan C. Rivera, 2020. "Does money supply shape corporate capital structure? International evidence from a panel data analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 554-584, April.
    13. Lopomo Beteto Wegner, Danilo, 2015. "Government insurance, information, and asset prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 165-183.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2013. "The high-frequency asymmetric response of stock returns to monetary policy for high oil price events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 166-176.
    2. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    3. Chuliá, Helena & Martens, Martin & Dijk, Dick van, 2010. "Asymmetric effects of federal funds target rate changes on S&P100 stock returns, volatilities and correlations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 834-839, April.
    4. Smales, L.A. & Apergis, N., 2017. "Does more complex language in FOMC decisions impact financial markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 171-189.
    5. Mira Farka, 2022. "The credit channel of monetary policy before and after the zero lower bound: Evidence from the US equity market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 633-693, September.
    6. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Macroeconomic news and treasury futures return volatility: Do treasury auctions matter?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2011. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 752-764, March.
    8. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "The impact of ECBs conventional and unconventional monetary policies on European banking indexes returns," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def059, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Alexander Kurov, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187, November.
    10. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2017. "When no news is good news – The decrease in investor fear after the FOMC announcement," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 187-199.
    11. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity prices since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," MPRA Paper 76542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Benchimol, Jonathan & Saadon, Yossi & Segev, Nimrod, 2023. "Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Kontonikas, Alexandros & MacDonald, Ronald & Saggu, Aman, 2013. "Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: State dependence and the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4025-4037.
    14. Sylvester Eijffinger & Ronald Mahieu & Louis Raes, 2017. "Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs Off the Stock Market?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 53-94, February.
    15. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces CentER DP 2011-072)," Discussion Paper 2012-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity returns since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 205-225.
    17. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 497-510.
    18. Hsu, Kuang-Chung & Chiang, Hui-Chu, 2011. "Nonlinear effects of monetary policy on stock returns in a smooth transition autoregressive model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 339-349.
    19. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces EBC DP 2011-017)," Other publications TiSEM 2cab42f6-c75d-46ef-9801-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Stock returns; Informative FOMC statement; Financial constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:273-290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.