IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/retrec/v31y2011i1p37-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting freight flows in a globalising world

Author

Listed:
  • Bröcker, Johannes
  • Korzhenevych, Artem
  • Riekhof, Marie-Catherine

Abstract

In this paper we suggest a methodology to predict commodity specific transportation flows that brings together data in value and in quantity terms in a consistent way. The approach is based on the modern gravity formulation. There are three driving forces of the transport flows dynamics: economic growth, the ongoing globalization (reduction of trade barriers), and the changing commodity composition of trade, whereby the evolution of value-to-weight ratios is explicitly taken into account. The methodology is applied to forecast the interregional trade flows in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Bröcker, Johannes & Korzhenevych, Artem & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine, 2011. "Predicting freight flows in a globalising world," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 37-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:31:y:2011:i:1:p:37-44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739-8859(10)00128-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eaton Jonathan & Tamura Akiko, 1994. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 478-510, December.
    2. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    3. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2005. "Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 85-91, February.
    5. Brocker, Johannes & Rohweder, Herold C, 1990. "Barriers to International Trade: Methods of Measurement and Empirical Evidence," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 24(4), pages 289-305.
    6. John F. Helliwell & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2005. "Borders, Common Currencies, Trade, and Welfare: What Can We Learn from the Evidence?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Spring), pages 19-33.
    7. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gomez, Juan & Vassallo, José Manuel, 2015. "Evolution over time of heavy vehicle volume in toll roads: A dynamic panel data to identify key explanatory variables in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 282-297.
    2. Koopmans, Carl & Oosterhaven, Jan, 2011. "SCGE modelling in cost-benefit analysis: The Dutch experience," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 29-36.
    3. MARKIANIDOU, Paresa & WEEREN, Arie, 2011. "Linear and nonlinear growth models using mixed modeling: An application on European import volumes," Working Papers 2011011, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    2. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2016. "Fitting the Gravity Model when Zero Trade Flows are Frequent: a Comparison of Estimation Techniques using Africa's Trade Data," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 230588, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Roger White & Bedassa Tadesse, 2011. "International Migration and Economic Integration," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14318.
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Shumilov, Andrei, 2017. "Оценивание Гравитационных Моделей Международной Торговли: Обзор Основных Подходов [Estimating gravity models of international trade: a survey of methods]," MPRA Paper 79790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    11. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    12. Kristian Behrens & Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2012. "‘Dual’ Gravity: Using Spatial Econometrics To Control For Multilateral Resistance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 773-794, August.
    13. Andrew J. Cassey, 2010. "Analyzing the export flow from Texas to Mexico," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Oct.
    14. Wessel, Jan, 2019. "Evaluating the transport-mode-specific trade effects of different transport infrastructure types," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-57.
    15. Jordi Paniagua, 2016. "A note on implementing gravity datasets with abundant zeros," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 268-280.
    16. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2012. "Trade Costs and Economic Development," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 88(2), pages 137-163, April.
    18. Raphaël Chiappini, 2016. "Do overseas investments create or replace trade? New insights from a macro-sectoral study on Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 403-425, June.
    19. Claudio E. Montenegro & Mariana Pereira & Isidro Soloaga, 2010. "China’s effect on Latin America’s international trade," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2010-08, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    20. White, Roger & Tadesse, Bedassa, 2008. "Immigrants, cultural distance and U.S. state-level exports of cultural products," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 331-348, December.
    21. Hendy, Rana & Zaki, Chahir, 2021. "Trade facilitation and firms exports: Evidence from customs data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 197-209.
    22. Khan, Imran Ullah & Kalirajan, Kaliappa, 2011. "The impact of trade costs on exports: An empirical modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1341-1347, May.
    23. Jacqueline Karlsson & Helena Melin & Kevin Cullinane, 2018. "The impact of potential Brexit scenarios on German car exports to the UK: an application of the gravity model," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, December.
    24. Zaki, Chahir, 2008. "Does Trade Facilitation Matter in Bilateral Trade?," Conference papers 331804, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:31:y:2011:i:1:p:37-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620614/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.