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Quantifying rates and drivers of change in long-term sector- and country-specific trends of carbon dioxide-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions

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  • Ozturk, Fatma
  • Keles, Melek
  • Evrendilek, Fatih

Abstract

Significance, direction, rate, and drivers of change in total carbon dioxide -equivalent (CO2-eq.) greenhouse gas (GHG) (GHGCO2−e) emission from eight sectors of 41 Annex-I countries were quantified over the period of 1990–2012 using data-driven models. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test for trend analysis indicated an overall downward trend by 10.5% with a Sen's slope of −613 Mt CO2-eq./year. The highest GHGCO2−e emission growth and reduction occurred with the sectors of energy, and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) at rates of 1.2 and −1.0 gigatons (Gt) CO2-eq./year, respectively. Out of the 41 countries, 18 (44%) and 12 (29%) significantly reduced and increased their GHGCO2−e emission rates, respectively (p<0.1). The best-fit multiple non-linear regression (MNLR) model as a function of population density, gross domestic product per capita, fractional contribution of renewable energy to total energy production, country, and year elucidated 99.8% of variation in total GHGCO2−e emission and had the predictive power of 99.8% based on leave-one-out cross-validation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozturk, Fatma & Keles, Melek & Evrendilek, Fatih, 2016. "Quantifying rates and drivers of change in long-term sector- and country-specific trends of carbon dioxide-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 823-831.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:65:y:2016:i:c:p:823-831
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.07.035
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