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Planning for rural energy system: part III

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  • Devadas, V.

Abstract

The paper presents a technique for forecasting future scenarios. The forecast is based on a set of projected inputs for the target year along with a projected set of technical coefficients. The projected inputs and the technical coefficients are arrived at either through a regression of historical data or based on socio-economic conditions of the study area as brought out by State or District level statistical data or through a primary survey. For some variables, the best farm method was also employed for projections. The application of the method is illustrated by projecting a plausible scenario for the rural segment of Kanyakumari District for the year 1995. This paper also presents the application of scenario approach to micro level planning via impact analysis of various control parameters. The advantage of scenario analysis for micro level planning is discussed and scenarios for analyzing the impact of (1) replacing field crop by plantation crop, (2) introducing energy plantation, (3) introducing fuel efficient stoves, (4) increasing fertilizer price, (5) increased fertilizer application, (6) increased population growth, (7) drought conditions, (8) decreased fuelwood availability, have been developed and discussed for arriving at plausible recommendations for energy resource generation and optimum usage of available energy resources in a given rural system under various conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Devadas, V., 2001. "Planning for rural energy system: part III," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 271-297, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:5:y:2001:i:3:p:271-297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Parikh, Jyoti, 1985. "Modeling energy and agriculture interactions—I: A rural energy systems model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 10(7), pages 793-804.
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    Cited by:

    1. Van Hoesen, John & Letendre, Steven, 2010. "Evaluating potential renewable energy resources in Poultney, Vermont: A GIS-based approach to supporting rural community energy planning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2114-2122.
    2. Sekeroglu, Ahmet & Erol, Demet, 2023. "Site selection modeling of hybrid renewable energy facilities using suitability index in spatial planning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    3. Edwin, M. & Joseph Sekhar, S., 2018. "Techno- Economic evaluation of milk chilling unit retrofitted with hybrid renewable energy system in coastal province," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 66-78.
    4. Abdmouleh, Zeineb & Gastli, Adel & Ben-Brahim, Lazhar & Haouari, Mohamed & Al-Emadi, Nasser Ahmed, 2017. "Review of optimization techniques applied for the integration of distributed generation from renewable energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 266-280.
    5. Siddaiah, Rajanna & Saini, R.P., 2016. "A review on planning, configurations, modeling and optimization techniques of hybrid renewable energy systems for off grid applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 376-396.
    6. Mandelli, Stefano & Barbieri, Jacopo & Mereu, Riccardo & Colombo, Emanuela, 2016. "Off-grid systems for rural electrification in developing countries: Definitions, classification and a comprehensive literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1621-1646.

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