Assessing the short-term revenue impacts of residential PV systems on electricity customers, retailers and network service providers

Falling costs and supportive government policies have seen remarkable growth in residential photovoltaic systems in jurisdictions around the world. While there have been detailed studies of the financial attractiveness of PV for home owners under different policy and retail market arrangements, there has been less consideration of the impacts of such systems on some other key industry participants. In this paper we undertake an investigation of the annual short-term revenue impacts of PV systems for those households installing them, for their electricity retailers and network service providers (NSPs), and for all electricity customers more in general, in the Australian State of NSW. We use actual half-hourly PV generation and electricity consumption for 80 households in Sydney to estimate the ‘real world’ impacts of a range of former, current and possible future PV policy and retail tariff arrangements including gross and net Feed-in-Tariffs (FiT). We found that the short-term revenue impacts differ significantly for different commercial arrangements and, are highly variable and largely driven by the PV performance and its match with household consumption patterns. Results highlight that current net metering policies in Australia with low net FiT rates may provide only moderate revenue incentives to households, yet quite adverse revenue impacts on NSPs and retailers depending on the level of PV export. While NSP short-term revenue losses will likely involve increasing electricity tariffs in the longer term, losses for retailers may add risks to the profitability of household customers with PV. The challenge for policy makers is to facilitate socially valuable PV deployment whilst appropriately managing the impacts on all key electricity industry stakeholders.