Relevance of guarantees of origin for Europe's renewable energy targets

To accelerate the transition towards an energy system based on renewable energy sources (RES), governments set targets for RES shares in their energy mixes. Renewable energy also plays a major role in decarbonization strategies of private organizations. Electricity from RES is claimed via the acquisition of market-based Energy Attribute Certificates, such as Guarantees of Origin (GOs). GOs can be traded within the European residual mix area. Interest in GOs is lower in countries with high RES shares, leading to a trade imbalance. In 2020, Iceland and Norway had a GO trade deficit that corresponded to 74.2 % and 62.4 %, respectively, of their gross final electricity production from RES. This study evaluates the non-dependence of Europe's RES targets and the GO system by including GO trade in the RES share calculations. Overall, 11 countries do not reach their 2020 RES targets for the electricity sector due to the inclusion of GO trade. Their total GO trade deficit amounts to 212 TWh, equivalent to 31 % of all issued GOs from RES. Limiting international GO trade to ensure that each country still achieves its RES-E targets is one option to harmonize governmental and corporate RES and decarbonization targets. Other options include the complete prohibition of international GO trade and a GO trade limitation to actual physical electricity transmission. Further aligning physical and virtual electricity consumption could strengthen the energy transition contribution of energy attribute certificate systems, such as the GO system.