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The vulnerability of hydroelectric generation in the Northeast of Brazil: The environmental and business risks for CHESF

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  • Andrade, Eurídice M.
  • Paulo Cosenza, José
  • Pinguelli Rosa, Luiz
  • Lacerda, Gleide

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to identify how global climate change may affect the internal and external variables of enterprises, and how strategic planning could include responses to potential performance threats. A case study was prepared using data from the São Francisco Hydroelectric Company (CHESF), the largest hydroelectric power generator in Brazil's Northeast region. It is essential to understand how the leading energy company in the region is preparing to address these problems involving economic impacts resulting from the environmental effects of climate change. Two prospective methodologies were used to select the variables and construct a SWOT matrix, and their respective scenarios: A Panel of Experts and the Delphi Method. The methodologies used allow for four (4) distinct scenarios to be inferred for CHESF up until 2050: Development, Growth, Survival and Decline. The analyses of these scenarios concluded that CHESF's main risk from climate change is the possible reduction of water flow and reservoir levels, which could threaten energy security throughout the country if certain preventative adaptations to climate change are not implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrade, Eurídice M. & Paulo Cosenza, José & Pinguelli Rosa, Luiz & Lacerda, Gleide, 2012. "The vulnerability of hydroelectric generation in the Northeast of Brazil: The environmental and business risks for CHESF," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5760-5769.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:16:y:2012:i:8:p:5760-5769
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2012.06.028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Terrados, J. & Almonacid, G. & Hontoria, L., 2007. "Regional energy planning through SWOT analysis and strategic planning tools.: Impact on renewables development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 1275-1287, August.
    2. Jay, Stephen, 2010. "Strategic environmental assessment for energy production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3489-3497, July.
    3. Markovska, N. & Taseska, V. & Pop-Jordanov, J., 2009. "SWOT analyses of the national energy sector for sustainable energy development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 752-756.
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    1. Berna Tektas Sivrikaya & Ferhan Cebi & Hasan Hüseyin Turan & Nihat Kasap & Dursun Delen, 2017. "A fuzzy long-term investment planning model for a GenCo in a hybrid electricity market considering climate change impacts," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 975-991, October.
    2. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2019. "Assessing the effect of transmission constraints on wind power expansion in northeast Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Berna Tektas Sivrikaya & Ferhan Cebi & Hasan Hüseyin Turan & Nihat Kasap & Dursun Delen, 0. "A fuzzy long-term investment planning model for a GenCo in a hybrid electricity market considering climate change impacts," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-17.

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