IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v151y2021ics136403212100839x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projections of carbon metabolism in 2035 and implications for demand-side controls under various scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Jizhe
  • Huang, Guohe
  • Liu, Lirong
  • Li, Yongping
  • Zhai, Mengyu
  • Xu, Xinli

Abstract

Carbon emission contributes significantly to environmental sustainability. There are overwhelming studies of how urbanization contributes to the increase of carbon emissions. However, it has been unclear how emission and economic change within urban systems evolve with social development in a long period. Therefore, feasible emission reduction policy for the near future is desired. Taking Guangdong province as a case study, Dynamic simulation model of carbon emission is developed to assess the stability of a metabolic system and simultaneously, explore potential changes of gross domestic products (GDP) and carbon emissions over a long period from 2000 to 2035, based on comprehensive applications of three-perspective stability and linkage analyses. Furthermore, eight simulated scenarios are developed to assess potential emissions and GDP changes of 2035 under the condition of reducing the final demand of key carbon emission sectors to varying degrees. We find that emission flows experience a remarkable increase during investigated years. Under the premise of minimizing economic losses and reduce emissions per unit GDP, emission reduction policies for final demand should be implemented on domestic products-reliant sectors rather than imported products-reliant sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jizhe & Huang, Guohe & Liu, Lirong & Li, Yongping & Zhai, Mengyu & Xu, Xinli, 2021. "Projections of carbon metabolism in 2035 and implications for demand-side controls under various scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:151:y:2021:i:c:s136403212100839x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111561
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403212100839X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111561?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ning Chang & Michael L. Lahr, 2016. "Changes in China’s production-source CO 2 emissions: insights from structural decomposition analysis and linkage analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 224-242, June.
    2. Jiali Huang & Robert E Ulanowicz, 2014. "Ecological Network Analysis for Economic Systems: Growth and Development and Implications for Sustainable Development," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-8, June.
    3. Chen, Siyuan & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2020. "Low carbon transition pathway of power sector with high penetration of renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Hötte, Kerstin & Pichler, Anton & Lafond, François, 2021. "The rise of science in low-carbon energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Li, Jizhe & Huang, Guohe & Liu, Lirong, 2018. "Ecological network analysis for urban metabolism and carbon emissions based on input-output tables: A case study of Guangdong province," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 383(C), pages 118-126.
    6. Heran Zheng & Jing Meng & Zhifu Mi & Malin Song & Yuli Shan & Jiamin Ou & Dabo Guan, 2019. "Linking city‐level input–output table to urban energy footprint: Construction framework and application," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 23(4), pages 781-795, August.
    7. Zhifu Mi & Jing Meng & Dabo Guan & Yuli Shan & Malin Song & Yi-Ming Wei & Zhu Liu & Klaus Hubacek, 2017. "Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Ye, Bin & Jiang, Jingjing & Liu, Junguo & Zheng, Yi & Zhou, Nan, 2021. "Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Zhai, Mengyu & Huang, Guohe & Liu, Lirong & Zheng, Boyue & Guan, Yuru, 2020. "Inter-regional carbon flows embodied in electricity transmission: network simulation for energy-carbon nexus," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Zhang, Yiyi & Hou, Shengren & Chen, Shaoqing & Long, Huihui & Liu, Jiefeng & Wang, Jiaqi, 2021. "Tracking flows and network dynamics of virtual water in electricity transmission across China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Velasco-Fernández, Raúl & Ramos-Martín, Jesus & Giampietro, Mario, 2015. "The energy metabolism of China and India between 1971 and 2010: Studying the bifurcation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1052-1066.
    12. Lewis C. King & Jeroen C. J. M. Bergh, 2021. "Potential carbon leakage under the Paris Agreement," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-19, April.
    13. Fekete, Hanna & Kuramochi, Takeshi & Roelfsema, Mark & Elzen, Michel den & Forsell, Nicklas & Höhne, Niklas & Luna, Lisa & Hans, Frederic & Sterl, Sebastian & Olivier, Jos & van Soest, Heleen & Frank,, 2021. "A review of successful climate change mitigation policies in major emitting economies and the potential of global replication," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Wang, Y. & Mauree, D. & Sun, Q. & Lin, H. & Scartezzini, J.L. & Wennersten, R., 2020. "A review of approaches to low-carbon transition of high-rise residential buildings in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhan, Jinyan & Wang, Chao & Wang, Huihui & Zhang, Fan & Li, Zhihui, 2024. "Pathways to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality by 2060: A case study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    2. Zhang, Yijie & Ma, Tao & Yang, Hongxing, 2022. "Grid-connected photovoltaic battery systems: A comprehensive review and perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    3. Yue, Wencong & Li, Yangqing & Su, Meirong & Chen, Qionghong & Rong, Qiangqiang, 2023. "Carbon emissions accounting and prediction in urban agglomerations from multiple perspectives of production, consumption and income," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, P.P. & Huang, G.H. & Li, Y.P. & Liu, Y.Y. & Li, Y.F., 2024. "An ecological input-output CGE model for unveiling CO2 emission metabolism under China's dual carbon goals," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    2. Song, Yi & Huang, Jian-Bai & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in China's iron and steel industry: A comprehensive decomposition framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 103-116.
    3. Ling Li & Jingjing Li & Ling Tang & Shouyang Wang, 2019. "Balancing Tourism’s Economic Benefit and CO 2 Emissions: An Insight from Input–Output and Tourism Satellite Account Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Zhai, Mengyu & Huang, Guohe & Liu, Lirong & Zheng, Boyue & Guan, Yuru, 2020. "Inter-regional carbon flows embodied in electricity transmission: network simulation for energy-carbon nexus," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Liu, Yajuan & Wang, Yutao & Mi, Zhifu & Ma, Zhongyu, 2018. "Carbon implications of China’s changing economic structure at the city level," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 163-171.
    6. Li, Yilin & Chen, Bin & Li, Chaohui & Li, Zhi & Chen, Guoqian, 2020. "Energy perspective of Sino-US trade imbalance in global supply chains," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    7. Yan Li & Yigang Wei & Hanxiao Xu & Huanwen Liu & Julien Chevallier, 2023. "Carbon monoxide and multi‐pollutants flow between China and India: A multiregional input–output model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(8), pages 2514-2537, August.
    8. Colton Brehm & Astrid Layton, 2021. "Nestedness of eco‐industrial networks: Exploring linkage distribution to promote sustainable industrial growth," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(1), pages 205-218, February.
    9. Zhang, Yun-Long & Liu, Lan-Cui & Kang, Jia-Ning & Peng, Song & Mi, Zhifu & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2024. "Economic feasibility assessment of coal-biomass co-firing power generation technology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    10. Zhai, Yijie & Ma, Xiaotian & Gao, Feng & Zhang, Tianzuo & Hong, Jinglan & Zhang, Xu & Yuan, Xueliang & Li, Xiangzhi, 2020. "Is energy the key to pursuing clean air and water at the city level? A case study of Jinan City, China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Andreoni, Valeria, 2020. "The energy metabolism of countries: Energy efficiency and use in the period that followed the global financial crisis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Sebestyén, Tamás & Szabó, Norbert & Braun, Emese & Bedő, Zsolt, 2024. "Lokális reziliencia számítása térbeli általános egyensúlyi modell felhasználásával [Measuring local resilience with a spatial computable general equilibrium model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1222-1253.
    13. Borrett, Stuart R. & Sheble, Laura & Moody, James & Anway, Evan C., 2018. "Bibliometric review of ecological network analysis: 2010–2016," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 382(C), pages 63-82.
    14. Eryu Zhang & Xiaoyu He & Peng Xiao, 2022. "Does Smart City Construction Decrease Urban Carbon Emission Intensity? Evidence from a Difference-in-Difference Estimation in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Li, Jia Shuo & Zhou, H.W. & Meng, Jing & Yang, Q. & Chen, B. & Zhang, Y.Y., 2018. "Carbon emissions and their drivers for a typical urban economy from multiple perspectives: A case analysis for Beijing city," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 1076-1086.
    16. Zhang, Tong & Burke, Paul J. & Wang, Qi, 2024. "Effectiveness of electric vehicle subsidies in China: A three-dimensional panel study," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Zhang, Hong & Jin, Gui & Zhang, Zhengyu, 2021. "Coupling system of carbon emission and social economy: A review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Ana Luiza Fontenelle & Erik Nilsson & Ieda Geriberto Hidalgo & Cintia B. Uvo & Drielli Peyerl, 2022. "Temporal Understanding of the Water–Energy Nexus: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    19. Zia, Muhammad Fahad & Nasir, Mashood & Elbouchikhi, Elhoussin & Benbouzid, Mohamed & Vasquez, Juan C. & Guerrero, Josep M., 2022. "Energy management system for a hybrid PV-Wind-Tidal-Battery-based islanded DC microgrid: Modeling and experimental validation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    20. Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Xiaoyong & Xu, Qing & Wu, Fei & Wang, Qunwei & Zha, Donglan, 2018. "Regional embodied carbon emissions and their transfer characteristics in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 180-193.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:151:y:2021:i:c:s136403212100839x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.