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Demand forecast for road transportation fuels including gasoline, diesel, LPG, bioethanol and biodiesel for Turkey between 2013 and 2023

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  • Melikoglu, Mehmet

Abstract

In Turkey, more than 90% of passengers and goods are transported by roads. In order to flow this immense traffic nearly 2.7 million m3 of gasoline, 11.5 million m3 of diesel, and 5.2 million m3 of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was consumed in 2011. Starting from 2013, Turkey plans to blend biofuels to gasoline and diesel gradually reaching to 10% (volume) by 2020. Turkey's economy has been growing at unprecedented rates since 2003. As a result, both diesel and LPG consumption reached to record levels. Yet, gasoline demand decreased almost linearly in the same period. Accordingly, forecasting road transportation fuel demand becomes more difficult and yet more important than ever before. Gasoline, diesel, LPG, bioethanol and biodiesel demand has been forecast for the first time in this study using semi-empirical models in the view of Turkey's Vision 2023 goals, Energy Market Regulatory Authority targets, and European Union directives. The models suggested that in 2023, annual gasoline consumption in Turkey could decrease below 2.0 million m3, whereas, diesel and LPG consumption could rise to 16.4 and 8.8 million m3, respectively. Consequently, 0.3 million m3 of bioethanol and 1.4 million m3 biodiesel could be required to fulfil the official targets in 2023.

Suggested Citation

  • Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2014. "Demand forecast for road transportation fuels including gasoline, diesel, LPG, bioethanol and biodiesel for Turkey between 2013 and 2023," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 164-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:64:y:2014:i:c:p:164-171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2013.11.009
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel & Rıdvan Aydın, 2020. "Elasticity Analysis of Fossil Energy Sources for Sustainable Economies: A Case of Gasoline Consumption in Turkey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Lean Yu & Yueming Ma, 2021. "A Data-Trait-Driven Rolling Decomposition-Ensemble Model for Gasoline Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-26, July.
    3. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2017. "Geothermal energy in Turkey and around the World: A review of the literature and an analysis based on Turkey's Vision 2023 energy targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 485-492.
    4. Chanthawong, Anuman & Dhakal, Shobhakar & Jongwanich, Juthathip, 2016. "Supply and demand of biofuels in the fuel market of Thailand: Two stage least square and three least square approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 431-443.
    5. Demirdöğen, Alper & Olhan, Emine & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2016. "Food vs. fiber: An analysis of agricultural support policy in Turkey," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-8.
    6. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2016. "The role of renewables and nuclear energy in Turkey׳s Vision 2023 energy targets: Economic and technical scrutiny," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-12.
    7. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Sebastián Naranjo-Silva & Kenny Escobar-Segovia, 2020. "Long-Term Forecast of Energy and Fuels Demand Towards a Sustainable Road Transport Sector in Ecuador (2016–2035): A LEAP Model Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, January.
    8. Deendarlianto, & Widyaparaga, Adhika & Widodo, Tri & Handika, Irine & Chandra Setiawan, Indra & Lindasista, Alia, 2020. "Modelling of Indonesian road transport energy sector in order to fulfill the national energy and oil reduction targets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 504-518.
    9. Kornkamol Laung-Iem & Prapita Thanarak, 2021. "Forecasting of Biodiesel Prices in Thailand using Time Series Decomposition Method for Long Term from 2017 to 2036," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 593-600.
    10. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2017. "Pumped hydroelectric energy storage: Analysing global development and assessing potential applications in Turkey based on Vision 2023 hydroelectricity wind and solar energy targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 146-153.
    11. Güngör, Bekir Oray & Ertuğrul, H. Murat & Soytaş, Uğur, 2021. "Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    12. Zhang, Xiaokong & Chai, Jian & Tian, Lingyue & Yang, Ying & Zhang, Zhe George & Pan, Yue, 2023. "Forecast and structural characteristics of China's oil product consumption embedded in bottom-line thinking," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    13. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2017. "Vision 2023: Status quo and future of biomass and coal for sustainable energy generation in Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 800-808.
    14. Yu, Lean & Liang, Shaodong & Chen, Rongda & Lai, Kin Keung, 2022. "Predicting monthly biofuel production using a hybrid ensemble forecasting methodology," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 3-20.

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