IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v232y2024ics0960148124011418.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of the intermittency of non-conventional renewable energy sources on the volatility of the Colombian spot price

Author

Listed:
  • Cardona-Vasquez, David
  • Garcia-Rendon, John
  • Arango-Manrique, Adriana

Abstract

This paper explores one of the side effects and challenges that integrating non-conventional renewable energy sources poses to the Colombian electricity market, the spot price volatility which is directly related to financial risk. We propose a vector error correction model that allows an integrated and dynamic modelling of the offer-side of the spot market by considering bid prices, available energy, renewable energy production and the spot price. To validate the model, we performed statistical tests on the residuals of the model and back-testing. The results show that given a one standard deviation shock in renewable energy production from non-conventional sources, the spot price volatility increases from 12.7 % to 14.5 % in a 365-day horizon, which represents a relative increase of 14.2 %. Also, when evaluating different renewable energy integration scenarios and the official system expansion, we see that assuming 100 % fulfilment of the non-conventional sources integration plan, the volatility goes up to 31.2 % vs. 12.3 %. It is also worth noting that if the plan is fulfilled up to 25 % there is no significant increase in spot price volatility, which can be justified by the simultaneous expansion of conventional sources that compensate for the effects of non-conventional renewable sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Cardona-Vasquez, David & Garcia-Rendon, John & Arango-Manrique, Adriana, 2024. "Effect of the intermittency of non-conventional renewable energy sources on the volatility of the Colombian spot price," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:232:y:2024:i:c:s0960148124011418
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148124011418
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121073?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    3. Bertsch, Joachim & Growitsch, Christian & Lorenczik, Stefan & Nagl, Stephan, 2016. "Flexibility in Europe's power sector — An additional requirement or an automatic complement?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 118-131.
    4. Sergio Botero Botero & Jovan Alfonso Cano Cano, 2008. "Análisis de series de tiempo para la predicción de los precios de la energía en la bolsa de Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, July.
    5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    6. Barrientos Marín, Jorge & Rodas, Edwin & Velilla, Esteban & Lopera, Mauricio, 2012. "Modelo para el pronóstico del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, October.
    7. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    8. Clò, Stefano & Cataldi, Alessandra & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2015. "The merit-order effect in the Italian power market: The impact of solar and wind generation on national wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 79-88.
    9. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    10. David Edgerton & Ghazi Shukur, 1999. "Testing autocorrelation in a system perspective testing autocorrelation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 343-386.
    11. Pfaff, Bernhard, 2008. "VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R Package vars," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i04).
    12. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    13. John Jairo Garcia Rendon & Alejandro Gutiérrez Gómez, 2021. "Fuentes de Energía Renovable, Recursos Energéticos Distribuidos y Almacenamiento en Colombia: una revisión de la normatividad," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 18646, Universidad EAFIT.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    15. Suomalainen, Kiti & Pritchard, Geoffrey & Sharp, Basil & Yuan, Ziqi & Zakeri, Golbon, 2015. "Correlation analysis on wind and hydro resources with electricity demand and prices in New Zealand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 445-462.
    16. Perez, Alex & Garcia-Rendon, John J., 2021. "Integration of non-conventional renewable energy and spot price of electricity: A counterfactual analysis for Colombia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 146-161.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc & Rochat, Denis, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-361, December.
    2. Russell Davidson & Victoria Zinde‐Walsh, 2017. "Advances in specification testing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1595-1631, December.
    3. Tung Liu & Lee C. Spector, 2005. "Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 151-169, January.
    4. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    5. Mahmood, Talat, 1990. "Die Dynamik der Rentabilität als stochastischer Prozess: eine empirische Zeitreihenanalyse von ausgewählten deutschen und amerikanischen Unternehmen. Vom Fachbereich 20 Informatik der Technischen Univ," EconStor Books, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 112236, November.
    6. Singh, Tarlok, 2008. "Testing the Saving-Investment correlations in India: An evidence from single-equation and system estimators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1064-1079, September.
    7. A. Frenzel Baudisch, 2006. "Continuous Market Growth Beyond Functional Satiation. Time-Series Analyses of U.S. Footwear Consumption, 1955-2002," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2006-03, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    8. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, November.
    9. Kolo, Horst & Tzanova, Polia, 2017. "Forecasting the German forest products trade: A vector error correction model," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 30-45.
    10. Mizon, Grayham E., 1995. "A simple message for autocorrelation correctors: Don't," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 267-288, September.
    11. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
    12. Gerdesmeier, Dieter, 1996. "The role of wealth in money demand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,05e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Pelaez, Rolando F., 1995. "The Fisher effect: Reprise," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 333-346.
    14. Caravaggio, Nicola & Carnazza, Giovanni, 2022. "The Italian nominal interest rate conundrum: A problem of growth or public finance?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 313-326.
    15. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    16. Sollis, Robert, 2011. "Spurious regression: A higher-order problem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 141-143, May.
    17. Erida Curraj, 2019. "Vintage Design Furniture in Albania, a New Retro Design Paradigm in the Post-Communist Era," European Journal of Engineering and Formal Sciences Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, ejef_19.
    18. Pierre Perron & Gabriel Rodríguez, "undated". "Residuals-based Tests for Cointegration with GLS Detrended Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-017, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised 19 Oct 2015.
    19. Campo, Jacobo & Mendoza, Henry, 2018. "Gasto público y crecimiento económico: un análisis regional para Colombia, 1984-2012," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 88, pages 77-108, January.
    20. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying steady‐state growth and inflation in the South African economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 279-300, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:232:y:2024:i:c:s0960148124011418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.