IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v215y2023ics0960148123008856.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantification and allocation of uncertainties of climate change impacts on hydropower potential under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels in the headwaters of the Benue River Basin, Cameroon

Author

Listed:
  • Nonki, Rodric M.
  • Amoussou, Ernest
  • Lennard, Christopher J.
  • Lenouo, André
  • Tshimanga, Raphael M.
  • Houndenou, Constant

Abstract

Hydropower is the world's largest producer of renewable energy and represents more than 43% of the low-carbon energy. However, it is sensitive to climate variability and change. This study evaluates the climate change impacts on hydropower potential in the headwaters of the Benue River Basin (HBRB) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels (GWLs) and quantifies the main sources of uncertainty in the modeling chain. Precipitation and temperature from 17 members of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment over the Africa domain (CORDEX-Africa) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) were used to run two calibrated Lumped-conceptual hydrological models (HMs) (Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenavdelning (HBV-Light) and HYdrological MODel (HYMOD)). An analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition was used to quantify the uncertainties related to each impact modeling chain step in the hydropower potential calculation process. Results reveal a high uncertainty in both climatic and hydrologic parameters. The change in precipitation associated with an increase in potential evapotranspiration (PET) causes a significant decrease in hydropower generation associated with a large uncertainty range. The ANOVA sensitivity test reveals that the dominant contributing source to hydropower projections uncertainty varies with GWL. Given the likely breach of GWL 1.5 by the early 2030s, these findings contribute information for consideration in water and energy planning in the region over the next decade, and stresses that these considerations are urgent for the socioeconomic well-being of the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Nonki, Rodric M. & Amoussou, Ernest & Lennard, Christopher J. & Lenouo, André & Tshimanga, Raphael M. & Houndenou, Constant, 2023. "Quantification and allocation of uncertainties of climate change impacts on hydropower potential under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels in the headwaters of the Benue River Basin, Cameroon," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:215:y:2023:i:c:s0960148123008856
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2023.118979
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148123008856
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2023.118979?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Xiao & Li, Hong-Yi & Deng, Zhiqun Daniel & Ringler, Claudia & Gao, Yang & Hejazi, Mohamad I. & Leung, L. Ruby, 2018. "Impacts of climate change, policy and Water-Energy-Food nexus on hydropower development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 827-834.
    2. Johan Grijsen, 2014. "Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Hydropower : The Case of Cameroon," World Bank Publications - Reports 18243, The World Bank Group.
    3. Falchetta, Giacomo & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & Hunt, Julian & Sterl, Sebastian, 2019. "Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review," Earth Arxiv w7rj3, Center for Open Science.
    4. Ibrahim Njouenwet & Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou & Stephanie Vanessa Ngono Ashu & Robert Nouayou, 2021. "Contributions of Seasonal Rainfall to Recent Trends in Cameroon’s Cotton Yields," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-13, November.
    5. Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo & Ismaïla Diallo & Moussa Diakhaté & Derbetini A. Vondou & Mamadou L. Mbaye & Andreas Haensler & Amadou T. Gaye & Clément Tchawoua, 2019. "Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 339-357, August.
    6. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    7. Inger Andersen & Ousmane Dione & Martha Jarosewich-Holder & Jean-Claude Olivry & Katherin George Golitzen, 2008. "The Niger River Basin : A Vision for Sustainable Management," World Bank Publications - Reports 11747, The World Bank Group.
    8. Obahoundje, Salomon & Diedhiou, Arona & Dubus, Laurent & Adéchina Alamou, Eric & Amoussou, Ernest & Akpoti, Komlavi & Antwi Ofosu, Eric, 2022. "Modeling climate change impact on inflow and hydropower generation of Nangbeto dam in West Africa using multi-model CORDEX ensemble and ensemble machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kenfack, Joseph & Nzotcha, Urbain & Voufo, Joseph & Ngohe-Ekam, Paul Salomon & Nsangou, Jean Calvin & Bignom, Blaise, 2021. "Cameroon's hydropower potential and development under the vision of Central Africa power pool (CAPP): A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. David Klenert & Franziska Funke & Linus Mattauch & Brian O’Callaghan, 2020. "Five Lessons from COVID-19 for Advancing Climate Change Mitigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 751-778, August.
    3. Yan, Peiliang & Fan, Weijun & Han, Yu & Ding, Hongbing & Wen, Chuang & Elbarghthi, Anas F.A. & Yang, Yan, 2023. "Leaf-vein bionic fin configurations for enhanced thermal energy storage performance of phase change materials in smart heating and cooling systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    4. Gorbach, O.G. & Kost, C. & Pickett, C., 2022. "Review of internal carbon pricing and the development of a decision process for the identification of promising Internal Pricing Methods for an Organisation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Lee, Jungwoo & Yang, Jae-Suk, 2019. "Global energy transitions and political systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Joel O. Botai & Christina M. Botai & Katlego P. Ncongwane & Sylvester Mpandeli & Luxon Nhamo & Muthoni Masinde & Abiodun M. Adeola & Michael G. Mengistu & Henerica Tazvinga & Miriam D. Murambadoro & S, 2021. "A Review of the Water–Energy–Food Nexus Research in Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-26, February.
    7. Ioannidis, Alexis & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Li, Xin & Notton, Gilles & Stephanides, Phedeas, 2019. "The case for islands’ energy vulnerability: Electricity supply diversity in 44 global islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 440-452.
    8. Müller-Hansen, Finn & Lee, Yuan Ting & Callaghan, Max & Jankin, Slava & Minx, Jan C., 2022. "The German coal debate on Twitter: Reactions to a corporate policy process," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    9. Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl, 2021. "The effect of blackouts on household electrification status: Evidence from Kenya," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. D. Lumbroso & G. Woolhouse & L. Jones, 2015. "A review of the consideration of climate change in the planning of hydropower schemes in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 621-633, December.
    11. Lewis C. King & Jeroen C. J. M. Bergh, 2021. "Potential carbon leakage under the Paris Agreement," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-19, April.
    12. Emily Ho & David V. Budescu & Valentina Bosetti & Detlef P. Vuuren & Klaus Keller, 2019. "Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 545-561, August.
    13. Vera, Ivan & Wicke, Birka & Lamers, Patrick & Cowie, Annette & Repo, Anna & Heukels, Bas & Zumpf, Colleen & Styles, David & Parish, Esther & Cherubini, Francesco & Berndes, Göran & Jager, Henriette & , 2022. "Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    14. Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo & Seman, Laio Oriel & Aquino, Luiza Scapinello & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2023. "Wavelet-Seq2Seq-LSTM with attention for time series forecasting of level of dams in hydroelectric power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    15. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Purohit, Pallav & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Dong, Kangyin & Liu, Li-Jing, 2022. "The cost-benefit comparisons of China's and India's NDCs based on carbon marginal abatement cost curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. Giacomo Falchetta & Manfred Hafner & Simone Tagliapietra, 2020. "Pathways to 100% Electrification in East Africa by 2030," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(3), pages 255-290, May.
    17. Yao Li & Liulin Yang & Tianlu Luo, 2023. "Energy System Low-Carbon Transition under Dual-Carbon Goals: The Case of Guangxi, China Using the EnergyPLAN Tool," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-16, April.
    18. Roy Chowdhury, Pranab K. & Brown, Daniel G., 2023. "Modeling the effects of carbon payments and forest owner cooperatives on carbon storage and revenue in Pacific Northwest forestlands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Asuega, Anthony & Limb, Braden J. & Quinn, Jason C., 2023. "Techno-economic analysis of advanced small modular nuclear reactors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    20. Ding, Tao & Liang, Liang & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Min & Wei, Yuqi, 2020. "Water-energy nexus: The origin, development and prospect," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 419(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:215:y:2023:i:c:s0960148123008856. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.