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Wind power predictions from nowcasts to 4-hour forecasts: A learning approach with variable selection

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  • Bouche, Dimitri
  • Flamary, Rémi
  • d’Alché-Buc, Florence
  • Plougonven, Riwal
  • Clausel, Marianne
  • Badosa, Jordi
  • Drobinski, Philippe

Abstract

We study short-term prediction of wind speed and wind power (every 10 min up to 4 h ahead). Accurate forecasts for these quantities are crucial to mitigate the negative effects of wind farms’ intermittent production on energy systems and markets. We use machine learning to combine outputs from numerical weather prediction models with local observations. The former provide valuable information on higher scales dynamics while the latter gives the model fresher and location-specific data. So as to make the results usable for practitioners, we focus on well-known methods which can handle a high volume of data. We study first variable selection using both a linear technique and a nonlinear one. Then we exploit these results to forecast wind speed and wind power still with an emphasis on linear models versus nonlinear ones. For the wind power prediction, we also compare the indirect approach (wind speed predictions passed through a power curve) and the direct one (directly predict wind power).

Suggested Citation

  • Bouche, Dimitri & Flamary, Rémi & d’Alché-Buc, Florence & Plougonven, Riwal & Clausel, Marianne & Badosa, Jordi & Drobinski, Philippe, 2023. "Wind power predictions from nowcasts to 4-hour forecasts: A learning approach with variable selection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 938-947.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:211:y:2023:i:c:p:938-947
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2023.05.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
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    5. Dupré, Aurore & Drobinski, Philippe & Alonzo, Bastien & Badosa, Jordi & Briard, Christian & Plougonven, Riwal, 2020. "Sub-hourly forecasting of wind speed and wind energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 2373-2379.
    6. Aurore Dupré & Philippe Drobinski & Jordi Badosa & Christian Briard & Peter Tankov, 2020. "The Economic Value of Wind Energy Nowcasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Han, Yan & Mi, Lihua & Shen, Lian & Cai, C.S. & Liu, Yuchen & Li, Kai & Xu, Guoji, 2022. "A short-term wind speed prediction method utilizing novel hybrid deep learning algorithms to correct numerical weather forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
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