IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v211y2023icp697-705.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel cyber-Resilient solar power forecasting model based on secure federated deep learning and data visualization

Author

Listed:
  • Moradzadeh, Arash
  • Moayyed, Hamed
  • Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam
  • Vale, Zita
  • Ramos, Carlos
  • Ghorbani, Reza

Abstract

Improving the accuracy of photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is crucial to ensure more effective use of energy resources. Improvements are especially important for regions for which historical solar radiation data do not exist. This paper proposes a cyber-secure forecasting model called federated deep learning (FDL) to forecast PV power generation in various regions across Iran. The training process in each client is done by a convolutional neural network (CNN). Then, a generalizable global supermodel is generated based on the features extracted in each client, which has the ability to generalize and forecast for regions where there is no training data. Preserve data privacy and ideal performance against cyber-attacks are prominent features of the proposed method. The use of the proposed method is illustrated with a case study for Iran. The proposed FDL network is designed with 9 clients and three different scenarios were developed to test the robustness of the suggested method. In the first scenario, the PV power generation forecasting is done via the proposed technique and other conventional methods. The performance accuracy (R2) of the generated global supermodel in this scenario for PV power generation forecasting in the regions of Khomein, Meybod, Varzaneh, Taleghan, and Shiraz are obtained as 0.981, 0.989, 0.986, 0.983, and 0.987 respectively. However, it was observed that other conventional deep learning-based models such as CNN and long short-term memory were not able to provide any forecasting for these regions. The second scenario models the scaling attack as a specific pattern of false data injection attack, to evaluate the performance of forecasting models against the data integrity attack. In the third scenario, cyber-attack detection is performed based on data visualization and image processing procedures. The results presented in different scenarios emphasize the high accuracy and generalizability of the global cyber-secure supermodel in PV power generation forecasting in different regions of Iran.

Suggested Citation

  • Moradzadeh, Arash & Moayyed, Hamed & Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam & Vale, Zita & Ramos, Carlos & Ghorbani, Reza, 2023. "A novel cyber-Resilient solar power forecasting model based on secure federated deep learning and data visualization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 697-705.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:211:y:2023:i:c:p:697-705
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2023.04.055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148123005050
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2023.04.055?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luo, Xing & Zhang, Dongxiao & Zhu, Xu, 2022. "Combining transfer learning and constrained long short-term memory for power generation forecasting of newly-constructed photovoltaic plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1062-1077.
    2. Vu, Ba Hau & Chung, Il-Yop, 2022. "Optimal generation scheduling and operating reserve management for PV generation using RNN-based forecasting models for stand-alone microgrids," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1137-1154.
    3. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Dongdong & Huang, Chao, 2021. "Methodological framework for short-and medium-term energy, solar and wind power forecasting with stochastic-based machine learning approach to monetary and energy policy applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    5. Sun, Mucun & Feng, Cong & Zhang, Jie, 2020. "Probabilistic solar power forecasting based on weather scenario generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    6. Zhao, Wei & Zhang, Haoran & Zheng, Jianqin & Dai, Yuanhao & Huang, Liqiao & Shang, Wenlong & Liang, Yongtu, 2021. "A point prediction method based automatic machine learning for day-ahead power output of multi-region photovoltaic plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    7. Zang, Haixiang & Liu, Ling & Sun, Li & Cheng, Lilin & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2020. "Short-term global horizontal irradiance forecasting based on a hybrid CNN-LSTM model with spatiotemporal correlations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 26-41.
    8. Heo, Jae & Song, Kwonsik & Han, SangUk & Lee, Dong-Eun, 2021. "Multi-channel convolutional neural network for integration of meteorological and geographical features in solar power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    9. Kushwaha, Vishal & Pindoriya, Naran M., 2019. "A SARIMA-RVFL hybrid model assisted by wavelet decomposition for very short-term solar PV power generation forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 124-139.
    10. Agga, Ali & Abbou, Ahmed & Labbadi, Moussa & El Houm, Yassine, 2021. "Short-term self consumption PV plant power production forecasts based on hybrid CNN-LSTM, ConvLSTM models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 101-112.
    11. Cheng, Lilin & Zang, Haixiang & Wei, Zhinong & Zhang, Fengchun & Sun, Guoqiang, 2022. "Evaluation of opaque deep-learning solar power forecast models towards power-grid applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 960-972.
    12. Sharadga, Hussein & Hajimirza, Shima & Balog, Robert S., 2020. "Time series forecasting of solar power generation for large-scale photovoltaic plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 797-807.
    13. Dorian Skrobek & Jaroslaw Krzywanski & Marcin Sosnowski & Anna Kulakowska & Anna Zylka & Karolina Grabowska & Katarzyna Ciesielska & Wojciech Nowak, 2020. "Prediction of Sorption Processes Using the Deep Learning Methods (Long Short-Term Memory)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-16, December.
    14. VanDeventer, William & Jamei, Elmira & Thirunavukkarasu, Gokul Sidarth & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Soon, Tey Kok & Horan, Ben & Mekhilef, Saad & Stojcevski, Alex, 2019. "Short-term PV power forecasting using hybrid GASVM technique," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 367-379.
    15. Rafati, Amir & Joorabian, Mahmood & Mashhour, Elaheh & Shaker, Hamid Reza, 2021. "High dimensional very short-term solar power forecasting based on a data-driven heuristic method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mahvash, Hossein & Taher, Seyed Abbas & Guerrero, Josep M., 2024. "Mitigation of severe false data injection attacks (FDIAs) in marine current turbine (MCT) type 4 synchronous generator renewable energy using promoted backstepping method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Tang, Yugui & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2024. "A privacy-preserving framework integrating federated learning and transfer learning for wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    3. Fatma Mazen Ali Mazen & Yomna Shaker & Rania Ahmed Abul Seoud, 2023. "Forecasting of Solar Power Using GRU–Temporal Fusion Transformer Model and DILATE Loss Function," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-24, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Zheng, Lingwei & Su, Ran & Sun, Xinyu & Guo, Siqi, 2023. "Historical PV-output characteristic extraction based weather-type classification strategy and its forecasting method for the day-ahead prediction of PV output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    3. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhou, Yilin & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Hour-ahead photovoltaic generation forecasting method based on machine learning and multi objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    4. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Photovoltaic power forecasting: A hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Liu, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Liu, Wuming, 2022. "Time series forecasting for hourly photovoltaic power using conditional generative adversarial network and Bi-LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    6. Yuan An & Kaikai Dang & Xiaoyu Shi & Rong Jia & Kai Zhang & Qiang Huang, 2021. "A Probabilistic Ensemble Prediction Method for PV Power in the Nonstationary Period," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Despotovic, Milan & Voyant, Cyril & Garcia-Gutierrez, Luis & Almorox, Javier & Notton, Gilles, 2024. "Solar irradiance time series forecasting using auto-regressive and extreme learning methods: Influence of transfer learning and clustering," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    8. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    9. Sarmas, Elissaios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Stamatopoulos, Efstathios & Marinakis, Vangelis & Doukas, Haris, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using meta-learning and numerical weather prediction independent Long Short-Term Memory models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    10. Polasek, Tomas & Čadík, Martin, 2023. "Predicting photovoltaic power production using high-uncertainty weather forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    11. Zheng, Jianqin & Du, Jian & Wang, Bohong & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Liao, Qi & Liang, Yongtu, 2023. "A hybrid framework for forecasting power generation of multiple renewable energy sources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    12. Liu, Jingxuan & Zang, Haixiang & Ding, Tao & Cheng, Lilin & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2023. "Harvesting spatiotemporal correlation from sky image sequence to improve ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 619-631.
    13. Heo, SungKu & Byun, Jaewon & Ifaei, Pouya & Ko, Jaerak & Ha, Byeongmin & Hwangbo, Soonho & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2024. "Towards mega-scale decarbonized industrial park (Mega-DIP): Generative AI-driven techno-economic and environmental assessment of renewable and sustainable energy utilization in petrochemical industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    14. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    15. Lee, Yoonjae & Ha, Byeongmin & Hwangbo, Soonho, 2022. "Generative model-based hybrid forecasting model for renewable electricity supply using long short-term memory networks: A case study of South Korea's energy transition policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 69-87.
    16. Yang, Hufang & Jiang, Ping & Wang, Ying & Li, Hongmin, 2022. "A fuzzy intelligent forecasting system based on combined fuzzification strategy and improved optimization algorithm for renewable energy power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    17. Hongchao Zhang & Tengteng Zhu, 2022. "Stacking Model for Photovoltaic-Power-Generation Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, May.
    18. Hu, Yusha & Man, Yi, 2023. "Energy consumption and carbon emissions forecasting for industrial processes: Status, challenges and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    19. Abdulla, Hind & Sleptchenko, Andrei & Nayfeh, Ammar, 2024. "Photovoltaic systems operation and maintenance: A review and future directions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    20. Cheng, Lilin & Zang, Haixiang & Wei, Zhinong & Zhang, Fengchun & Sun, Guoqiang, 2022. "Evaluation of opaque deep-learning solar power forecast models towards power-grid applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 960-972.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:211:y:2023:i:c:p:697-705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.