IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v186y2022icp195-206.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity analysis of capital and energy production cost for off-grid building integrated photovoltaic systems

Author

Listed:
  • Uzair, Muhammad
  • Rehman, Naveed ur
  • Yousuf, Muhammad Uzair

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for performing sensitivity analysis on the capital and energy production costs of off-grid Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. The different influencing parameters that are considered in this study are the daily electric load on the system, available sunshine hours, per unit costs of components, maintenance and replacement costs, several design and rating factors, interest rates, and carbon credits. The probabilistic-based Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique and log-log regression were used to develop the correlations for the capital cost and energy production cost of the system. The results were validated by comparing them with case studies available in the published literature. Then, a standardized version of the dataset was used to derive the elasticity constants associated with each parameter, which quantified the change in costs when the parameter value was increased by a unit percentage. The effects on the costs of increasing the parameters by 10% were quantified, ranked and compared. For the capital cost, the three most sensitive parameters were the daily electric load on system, the fudge factor and the available sunshine hours. In contrast, for the energy production cost, the three most sensitive parameters were the annual maintenance cost factor, the fudge factor and the interest rate. The correlation trends between these parameters and the costs were also plotted. Precautions and potential stakeholder actions for reducing the costs of off-grid BIPV systems are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Uzair, Muhammad & Rehman, Naveed ur & Yousuf, Muhammad Uzair, 2022. "Sensitivity analysis of capital and energy production cost for off-grid building integrated photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 195-206.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:186:y:2022:i:c:p:195-206
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.01.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148122000039
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2022.01.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shen, W.X., 2009. "Optimally sizing of solar array and battery in a standalone photovoltaic system in Malaysia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 348-352.
    2. Bhuiyan, M.M.H. & Ali Asgar, M., 2003. "Sizing of a stand-alone photovoltaic power system at Dhaka," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 929-938.
    3. Oliver, M. & Jackson, T., 2001. "Energy and economic evaluation of building-integrated photovoltaics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 431-439.
    4. M. Ryan Haley, 2003. "The Response of Worker Effort to Piece Rates: Evidence from the Midwest Logging Industry," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(4).
    5. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Sallaberry, C.J. & Storlie, C.B., 2006. "Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1175-1209.
    6. Wang, Yiping & Tian, Wei & Ren, Jianbo & Zhu, Li & Wang, Qingzhao, 2006. "Influence of a building's integrated-photovoltaics on heating and cooling loads," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(9), pages 989-1003, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Waldemar Izdebski & Katarzyna Kosiorek, 2023. "Analysis and Evaluation of the Possibility of Electricity Production from Small Photovoltaic Installations in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Waldemar Izdebski & Michał Izdebski & Katarzyna Kosiorek, 2023. "Evaluation of Economic Possibilities of Production of Second-Generation Spirit Fuels for Internal Combustion Engines in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, January.
    3. He, Shuaijia & Gao, Hongjun & Tang, Zao & Chen, Zhe & Jin, Xiaolong & Liu, Junyong, 2023. "Worst CVaR based energy management for generalized energy storage enabled building-integrated energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 255-266.
    4. Sheta, Mahmoud & Hassan, Hamdy, 2023. "Performance investigation of standalone multi-effect mechanical vapor compression desalination system powered by cascade photovoltaic/thermal-photovoltaic solar field-assisted heat pump system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P2).
    5. Liu, Fan & Duan, Jiandong & Wu, Chen & Tian, Qinxing, 2024. "Risk-averse distributed optimization for integrated electricity-gas systems considering uncertainties of Wind-PV and power-to-gas," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Halasah, Suleiman A. & Pearlmutter, David & Feuermann, Daniel, 2013. "Field installation versus local integration of photovoltaic systems and their effect on energy evaluation metrics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 462-471.
    2. Khatib, Tamer & Mohamed, Azah & Sopian, K., 2013. "A review of photovoltaic systems size optimization techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 454-465.
    3. Radhi, Hassan, 2012. "Trade-off between environmental and economic implications of PV systems integrated into the UAE residential sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2468-2474.
    4. Jakhrani, Abdul Qayoom & Othman, Al-Khalid & Rigit, Andrew Ragai Henry & Samo, Saleem Raza & Kamboh, Shakeel Ahmed, 2012. "A novel analytical model for optimal sizing of standalone photovoltaic systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 675-682.
    5. Mandelli, Stefano & Barbieri, Jacopo & Mereu, Riccardo & Colombo, Emanuela, 2016. "Off-grid systems for rural electrification in developing countries: Definitions, classification and a comprehensive literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1621-1646.
    6. Ibrahim Anwar Ibrahim & Tamer Khatib & Azah Mohamed, 2016. "Impact of Battery’s Model Accuracy on Size Optimization Process of a Standalone Photovoltaic System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-13, September.
    7. Yadav, S. & Panda, S.K. & Tripathy, M., 2018. "Performance of building integrated photovoltaic thermal system with PV module installed at optimum tilt angle and influenced by shadow," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 11-23.
    8. Zhou, Yuekuan & Zheng, Siqian, 2020. "Uncertainty study on thermal and energy performances of a deterministic parameters based optimal aerogel glazing system using machine-learning method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Helton, Jon C. & Johnson, Jay D. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2011. "Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Example analyses from reactor safety and radioactive waste disposal involving the separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 1014-1033.
    10. Plischke, Elmar & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2019. "Copula theory and probabilistic sensitivity analysis: Is there a connection?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 1046-1059.
    11. Saurbayeva, Assemgul & Memon, Shazim Ali & Kim, Jong, 2023. "Integrated multi-stage sensitivity analysis and multi-objective optimization approach for PCM integrated residential buildings in different climate zones," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    12. Christophe Lemiére & Gaute Torsvik & Ottar Mæstad & Christopher H. Herbst & Kenneth L. Leonard, 2013. "Evaluating the Impact of Results-Based Financing on Health Worker Performance: Theory, Tools and Variables to Inform an Impact Evaluation," Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Series 98269, The World Bank.
    13. Donghyeon Yoo & Jinhwan Park & Jaemin Moon & Changwan Kim, 2021. "Reliability-Based Design Optimization for Reducing the Performance Failure and Maximizing the Specific Energy of Lithium-Ion Batteries Considering Manufacturing Uncertainty of Porous Electrodes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, September.
    14. Tian, Wei & Song, Jitian & Li, Zhanyong & de Wilde, Pieter, 2014. "Bootstrap techniques for sensitivity analysis and model selection in building thermal performance analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 320-328.
    15. Javier Urquizo & Carlos Calderón & Philip James, 2017. "Using a Local Framework Combining Principal Component Regression and Monte Carlo Simulation for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of a Domestic Energy Model in Sub-City Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1, December.
    16. Milad Zeraatpisheh & Reza Arababadi & Mohsen Saffari Pour, 2018. "Economic Analysis for Residential Solar PV Systems Based on Different Demand Charge Tariffs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-19, November.
    17. Cao, Jiaokun & Du, Farong & Ding, Shuiting, 2013. "Global sensitivity analysis for dynamic systems with stochastic input processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 106-117.
    18. Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Pincetl, Stephanie & Fournier, Eric, 2019. "Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 943-953.
    19. Wang, Chuyao & Ji, Jie & Uddin, Md Muin & Yu, Bendong & Song, Zhiying, 2021. "The study of a double-skin ventilated window integrated with CdTe cells in a rural building," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    20. Guo, Zehua & Dailey, Ryan & Feng, Tangtao & Zhou, Yukun & Sun, Zhongning & Corradini, Michael L & Wang, Jun, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of ATF Cr-coated-Zircaloy on BWR in-vessel accident progression during a station blackout," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:186:y:2022:i:c:p:195-206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.