IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v184y2022icp91-99.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel falling model for wind speed probability distribution of wind farms

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng, Hanbo
  • Huang, Wufeng
  • Zhao, Junhui
  • Liu, Jiefeng
  • Zhang, Yiyi
  • Shi, Zhen
  • Zhang, Chaohai

Abstract

Accurate description of wind speed probability distribution is an essential part of wind farm planning and dispatching. The two-parameter Weibull distribution is mostly used to fit unimodal wind speed probability distribution, but it suffers from low fitting accuracy and insufficient applicability. To solve these issues of the Weibull distribution, a novel distribution model, Falling Model, is proposed in this paper. In this model, the first Step is to “fall” the empirical wind speed distribution based on the Weibull. Then the probability distribution of falling form is fitted by a Cloud Model after segmentation. Finally, the segmented Cloud Models are superposed with Weibull to build the Falling Model. The goodness-of-fit (GoF) of the Falling Model, Weibull, Burr, and Gamma distributions was compared in a case study, and it showed that the Falling Model had the highest fitting accuracy. The sum of squared error of the GoF is 106 times better than the Weibull. Further, the applicability analysis of the Falling Model was performed using existing literature data, and it found that the Falling Model can be widely applied. The study shows that the unimodal distribution combines the advantages of both the Weibull and several Cloud Models.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng, Hanbo & Huang, Wufeng & Zhao, Junhui & Liu, Jiefeng & Zhang, Yiyi & Shi, Zhen & Zhang, Chaohai, 2022. "A novel falling model for wind speed probability distribution of wind farms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 91-99.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:184:y:2022:i:c:p:91-99
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.11.073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148121016566
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2021.11.073?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wais, Piotr, 2017. "Two and three-parameter Weibull distribution in available wind power analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 15-29.
    2. Lo Brano, Valerio & Orioli, Aldo & Ciulla, Giuseppina & Culotta, Simona, 2011. "Quality of wind speed fitting distributions for the urban area of Palermo, Italy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1026-1039.
    3. Saidur, R. & Rahim, N.A. & Islam, M.R. & Solangi, K.H., 2011. "Environmental impact of wind energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 2423-2430, June.
    4. Katinas, Vladislovas & Gecevicius, Giedrius & Marciukaitis, Mantas, 2018. "An investigation of wind power density distribution at location with low and high wind speeds using statistical model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 442-451.
    5. Wais, Piotr, 2017. "A review of Weibull functions in wind sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1099-1107.
    6. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
    7. Alkhalidi, Mohamad A. & Al-Dabbous, Shoug Kh. & Neelamani, S. & Aldashti, Hassan A., 2019. "Wind energy potential at coastal and offshore locations in the state of Kuwait," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 529-539.
    8. Carta, J.A. & Ramírez, P. & Velázquez, S., 2009. "A review of wind speed probability distributions used in wind energy analysis: Case studies in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 933-955, June.
    9. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2019. "Wind speed distribution selection – A review of recent development and progress," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Baseer, M.A. & Meyer, J.P. & Rehman, S. & Alam, Md. Mahbub, 2017. "Wind power characteristics of seven data collection sites in Jubail, Saudi Arabia using Weibull parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 35-49.
    11. Chen, Kuilin & Yu, Jie, 2014. "Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 690-705.
    12. Foley, Aoife M. & Leahy, Paul G. & Marvuglia, Antonino & McKeogh, Eamon J., 2012. "Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-8.
    13. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Jingbo & Wang, Yang & He, Yuan & Cui, Wenrui & Chao, Qingchen & Shan, Baoguo & Wang, Zheng & Yang, Xiaofan, 2024. "The energy security risk assessment of inefficient wind and solar resources under carbon neutrality in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    2. Guanghui Che & Daocheng Zhou & Rui Wang & Lei Zhou & Hongfu Zhang & Sheng Yu, 2024. "Wind Energy Assessment in Forested Regions Based on the Combination of WRF and LSTM-Attention Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Carlos Adrián Hernández-Meléndez & Luis Alberto Rodríguez-Picón & Iván Juan Carlos Pérez-Olguín & Felipe Adrián Vázquez-Galvez & Jesús Israel Hernández-Hernández & Luis Carlos Méndez-González, 2024. "A Site-Specific Wind Energy Potential Analysis Based on Wind Probability Distributions: A Ciudad Juárez-México Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-22, October.
    4. Vladimir Simankov & Pavel Buchatskiy & Semen Teploukhov & Stefan Onishchenko & Anatoliy Kazak & Petr Chetyrbok, 2023. "Review of Estimating and Predicting Models of the Wind Energy Amount," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-24, August.
    5. Akpan, Anthony E. & Ben, Ubong C. & Ekwok, Stephen E. & Okolie, Chukwuma J. & Epuh, Emeka E. & Julzarika, Atriyon & Othman, Abdullah & Eldosouky, Ahmed M., 2024. "Technical and performance assessments of wind turbines in low wind speed areas using numerical, metaheuristic and remote sensing procedures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    6. Pan, Yue & Qin, Jianjun, 2022. "A novel probabilistic modeling framework for wind speed with highlight of extremes under data discrepancy and uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2019. "Wind speed distribution selection – A review of recent development and progress," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Katinas, Vladislovas & Gecevicius, Giedrius & Marciukaitis, Mantas, 2018. "An investigation of wind power density distribution at location with low and high wind speeds using statistical model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 442-451.
    3. Guedes, Kevin S. & de Andrade, Carla F. & Rocha, Paulo A.C. & Mangueira, Rivanilso dos S. & de Moura, Elineudo P., 2020. "Performance analysis of metaheuristic optimization algorithms in estimating the parameters of several wind speed distributions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    4. Alrashidi, Musaed & Rahman, Saifur & Pipattanasomporn, Manisa, 2020. "Metaheuristic optimization algorithms to estimate statistical distribution parameters for characterizing wind speeds," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 664-681.
    5. Alberto-Jesus Perea-Moreno & Gerardo Alcalá & Quetzalcoatl Hernandez-Escobedo, 2019. "Seasonal Wind Energy Characterization in the Gulf of Mexico," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    7. Herrero-Novoa, Cristina & Pérez, Isidro A. & Sánchez, M. Luisa & García, Ma Ángeles & Pardo, Nuria & Fernández-Duque, Beatriz, 2017. "Wind speed description and power density in northern Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 967-976.
    8. Jianxing Yu & Yiqin Fu & Yang Yu & Shibo Wu & Yuanda Wu & Minjie You & Shuai Guo & Mu Li, 2019. "Assessment of Offshore Wind Characteristics and Wind Energy Potential in Bohai Bay, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan & Baena-Ruiz, Leticia & Pulido-Velazquez, David & Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio, 2022. "Data-driven mapping of hourly wind speed and its potential energy resources: A sensitivity analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 87-102.
    10. Fazelpour, Farivar & Markarian, Elin & Soltani, Nima, 2017. "Wind energy potential and economic assessment of four locations in Sistan and Balouchestan province in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 646-667.
    11. Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia & Li, Qiwei & Ma, Xuejiao, 2018. "Comparison of seven methods for determining the optimal statistical distribution parameters: A case study of wind energy assessment in the large-scale wind farms of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 432-448.
    12. Bagci, Kubra & Arslan, Talha & Celik, H. Eray, 2021. "Inverted Kumarswamy distribution for modeling the wind speed data: Lake Van, Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Lee, C.W., 2022. "Characterizing coastal wind energy resources based on sodar and microwave radiometer observations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    14. Vladimir Simankov & Pavel Buchatskiy & Semen Teploukhov & Stefan Onishchenko & Anatoliy Kazak & Petr Chetyrbok, 2023. "Review of Estimating and Predicting Models of the Wind Energy Amount," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-24, August.
    15. Mehr Gul & Nengling Tai & Wentao Huang & Muhammad Haroon Nadeem & Moduo Yu, 2020. "Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential Using an Optimum Approach based on Maximum Distance Metric," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-23, March.
    16. Feijóo, Andrés & Villanueva, Daniel, 2016. "Assessing wind speed simulation methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 473-483.
    17. Han, Qinkai & Wang, Tianyang & Chu, Fulei, 2022. "Nonparametric copula modeling of wind speed-wind shear for the assessment of height-dependent wind energy in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Muhammad Aslam, 2022. "Neutrosophic F-Test for Two Counts of Data from the Poisson Distribution with Application in Climatology," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-11, August.
    19. Wasilewski, J. & Baczynski, D., 2017. "Short-term electric energy production forecasting at wind power plants in pareto-optimality context," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 177-187.
    20. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:184:y:2022:i:c:p:91-99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.