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Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks

Author

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  • Neil, Martin
  • Tailor, Manesh
  • Marquez, David
  • Fenton, Norman
  • Hearty, Peter

Abstract

A hybrid Bayesian network (BN) is one that incorporates both discrete and continuous nodes. In our extensive applications of BNs for system dependability assessment, the models are invariably hybrid and the need for efficient and accurate computation is paramount. We apply a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretisation with robust propagation algorithms on junction tree structures to perform inference in hybrid BNs. We illustrate its use in the field of dependability with two example of reliability estimation. Firstly we estimate the reliability of a simple single system and next we implement a hierarchical Bayesian model. In the hierarchical model we compute the reliability of two unknown subsystems from data collected on historically similar subsystems and then input the result into a reliability block model to compute system level reliability. We conclude that dynamic discretisation can be used as an alternative to analytical or Monte Carlo methods with high precision and can be applied to a wide range of dependability problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil, Martin & Tailor, Manesh & Marquez, David & Fenton, Norman & Hearty, Peter, 2008. "Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(7), pages 933-939.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:7:p:933-939
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.009
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Rui & Liu, Zehua & Xu, Jintao & Meng, Fanpeng & Sui, Yang & Men, Xinhong, 2021. "A novel approach for reliability assessment of residual heat removal system for HPR1000 based on failure mode and effect analysis, fault tree analysis, and fuzzy Bayesian network methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Zhong, X. & Ichchou, M. & Saidi, A., 2010. "Reliability assessment of complex mechatronic systems using a modified nonparametric belief propagation algorithm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1174-1185.
    3. Yan-Feng Li & Jinhua Mi & Yu Liu & Yuan-Jian Yang & Hong-Zhong Huang, 2015. "Dynamic fault tree analysis based on continuous-time Bayesian networks under fuzzy numbers," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(6), pages 530-541, December.
    4. Zwirglmaier, Kilian & Straub, Daniel, 2016. "A discretization procedure for rare events in Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 96-109.
    5. Marquez, David & Neil, Martin & Fenton, Norman, 2010. "Improved reliability modeling using Bayesian networks and dynamic discretization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(4), pages 412-425.
    6. Kaghazchi, Afsaneh & Hashemy Shahdany, S. Mehdy & Roozbahani, Abbas, 2021. "Simulation and evaluation of agricultural water distribution and delivery systems with a Hybrid Bayesian network model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

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