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Uncertainty in mortality response to airborne fine particulate matter: Combining European air pollution experts

Author

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  • Tuomisto, Jouni T.
  • Wilson, Andrew
  • Evans, John S.
  • Tainio, Marko

Abstract

The authors have performed a structured expert judgement study of the population mortality effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution. The opinions of six European air pollution experts were elicited. The ability of each expert to probabilistically characterize uncertainty was evaluated using 12 calibration questions—relevant variables whose true values were unknown at the time of elicitation, but available at the time of analysis. The elicited opinions exhibited both uncertainty and disagreement. It emerged that there were significant differences in expert performance. Two combinations of the experts’ judgements were computed and evaluated—one in which each expert's views received equal weight; the other in which the expert's judgements were weighted by their performance on the calibration variables. When the performance of these combinations was evaluated the equal-weight combination exhibited acceptable performance, but was nonetheless inferior to the performance-based combination.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuomisto, Jouni T. & Wilson, Andrew & Evans, John S. & Tainio, Marko, 2008. "Uncertainty in mortality response to airborne fine particulate matter: Combining European air pollution experts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 732-744.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:5:p:732-744
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Heli Lehtomäki & Antti Korhonen & Arja Asikainen & Niko Karvosenoja & Kaarle Kupiainen & Ville-Veikko Paunu & Mikko Savolahti & Mikhail Sofiev & Yuliia Palamarchuk & Ari Karppinen & Jaakko Kukkonen & , 2018. "Health Impacts of Ambient Air Pollution in Finland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye, 2013. "Combining Experts: Decomposition and Aggregation Order," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1116-1127, June.
    3. Fraas Arthur G., 2011. "The Treatment of Uncertainty in EPA's Analysis of Air Pollution Rules: A Status Report," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-27, April.
    4. Art Fraas & Randall Lutter, 2013. "Uncertain Benefits Estimates for Reductions in Fine Particle Concentrations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 434-449, March.

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