IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v93y2008i12p1896-1905.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida

Author

Listed:
  • Pinelli, J.-P.
  • Gurley, K.R.
  • Subramanian, C.S.
  • Hamid, S.S.
  • Pita, G.L.

Abstract

The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is one of the first public models accessible for scrutiny to the scientific community, incorporating state of the art techniques in hurricane and vulnerability modeling. The model was developed for Florida, and is applicable to other hurricane-prone regions where construction practice is similar. The 2004 hurricane season produced substantial losses in Florida, and provided the means to validate and calibrate this model against actual claim data. This paper presents the predicted losses for several insurance portfolios corresponding to hurricanes Andrew, Charley, and Frances. The predictions are validated against the actual claim data. Physical damage predictions for external building components are also compared to observed damage. The analyses show that the predictive capabilities of the model were substantially improved after the calibration against the 2004 data. The methodology also shows that the predictive capabilities of the model could be enhanced if insurance companies report more detailed information about the structures they insure and the types of damage they suffer. This model can be a powerful tool for the study of risk reduction strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinelli, J.-P. & Gurley, K.R. & Subramanian, C.S. & Hamid, S.S. & Pita, G.L., 2008. "Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(12), pages 1896-1905.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:12:p:1896-1905
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2008.03.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832008001129
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2008.03.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sangki Park & John Lindt & Yue Li, 2013. "Application of the hybrid ABV procedure for assessing community risk to hurricanes spatially," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 981-1000, September.
    2. Hong, Xu & Wan, Zhiqiang & Chen, Jianbing, 2023. "Parallel assessment of the tropical cyclone wind hazard at multiple locations using the probability density evolution method integrated with the change of probability measure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    3. Wei-ping Lou & Hai-yan Chen & Xin-fa Qiu & Qi-yi Tang & Feng Zheng, 2012. "Assessment of economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters based on PCA-BP," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 819-829, February.
    4. Erdem Karaca & Hesaam Aslani, 2016. "Review of two Japan Typhoon catastrophe models for commercial and industrial properties," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 19-40, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:12:p:1896-1905. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.