IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v240y2023ics095183202300529x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Kriging-based probabilistic framework for multi-hazard performance assessment of transmission tower-line systems under coupled wind and rain loads

Author

Listed:
  • Bi, Wenzhe
  • Tian, Li
  • Li, Chao
  • Ma, Zhen

Abstract

The increasing severity and occurrence of multiple hazards attributed to climate change exacerbate the failure risk of infrastructure systems. This paper proposes a Kriging-based probabilistic framework for the multi-hazard performance assessment of structures, which is applied to a transmission tower-line system (TTLS) subjected to combined wind and rain loads, considering the dependency and directionality effects of wind and rain related variables. Based on the long-term meteorological data, the joint probability distribution (JPD) of wind speed, wind direction, and rain intensity is modeled using vine copulas. Meanwhile, a Kriging surrogate demand model is developed and facilitates the multi-hazard fragility analysis. The fragility estimates are finally integrated with the JPD model through the importance sampling technique to estimate the actual failure probability of the regional TTLS. The results indicate that rainfall can generally increase the structural vulnerability, especially for the multi-hazard scenario of strong wind accompanied by torrential rain. The underlying correlations among multi-hazard variables, if not accounted for, will result in an overestimation of the failure probability. The results of the case study verify the rationality and efficiency of the proposed framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Bi, Wenzhe & Tian, Li & Li, Chao & Ma, Zhen, 2023. "A Kriging-based probabilistic framework for multi-hazard performance assessment of transmission tower-line systems under coupled wind and rain loads," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:240:y:2023:i:c:s095183202300529x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109615
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183202300529X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109615?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fang, Chen & Xu, You-Lin & Li, Yongle & Li, Jinrong, 2024. "Serviceability analysis of sea-crossing bridges under correlated wind and wave loads," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    2. Meng, Xiangrui & Tian, Li & Li, Chao & Liu, Juncai, 2024. "Copula-based wind-induced failure prediction of overhead transmission line considering multiple temperature factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:240:y:2023:i:c:s095183202300529x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.