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Collision probability estimation for small unmanned aircraft systems

Author

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  • Zou, Yiyuan
  • Zhang, Honghai
  • Zhong, Gang
  • Liu, Hao
  • Feng, Dikun

Abstract

With the continuous expansion of the small unmanned aircraft market, the collision risk problem for small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) has been increasingly highlighted. In this paper, the rapid calculating methods of collision probability estimation for sUAS are proposed supposing that the predicted position error follows a certain Gaussian distribution. There are three types of collision zones established for collision modelling including cuboid, ellipsoid and cylinder. For each type of collision zones, a corresponding algorithm is derived for collision probability estimation based on the univariate conditioning or Laguerre polynomials. Randomized tests are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The test results indicate that the average computation times of these three methods are approximately two orders of magnitude faster than the corresponding exact solutions, while the average computation errors are all less than 1%. Numerical simulations are carried out to analyze the differences in the collision probabilities when using different types of collision zones. The simulation results testify that the selection of the collision zones affects the collision probability estimation apparently, especially when the crossing angle of the two sUAS is between 0° and 40°.

Suggested Citation

  • Zou, Yiyuan & Zhang, Honghai & Zhong, Gang & Liu, Hao & Feng, Dikun, 2021. "Collision probability estimation for small unmanned aircraft systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:213:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021001630
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107619
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wagner A. Kamakura, 1989. "The Estimation of Multinomial Probit Models: A New Calibration Algorithm," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 253-265, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Honghai Zhang & Yuhan Fei & Jingyu Li & Bowen Li & Hao Liu, 2022. "Method of Vertiport Capacity Assessment Based on Queuing Theory of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Ziegler Haselein, Bruno & da Silva, Jonny Carlos & Hooey, Becky L., 2024. "Multiple machine learning modeling on near mid-air collisions: An approach towards probabilistic reasoning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    3. Wu, Pengcheng & Chen, Jun, 2024. "Data-driven zonotopic approximation for n-dimensional probabilistic geofencing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    4. Dai, Wei & Quek, Zhi Hao & Low, Kin Huat, 2024. "Probabilistic modeling and reasoning of conflict detection effectiveness by tracking systems towards safe urban air mobility operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    5. Pang, Bizhao & Hu, Xinting & Dai, Wei & Low, Kin Huat, 2022. "UAV path optimization with an integrated cost assessment model considering third-party risks in metropolitan environments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    6. Zhong, Gang & Du, Sen & Zhang, Honghai & Zhou, Jiangying & Liu, Hao, 2024. "Demarcation method of safety separations for sUAV based on collision risk estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    7. Honghai Zhang & Jingyu Li & Yuhan Fei & Cheng Deng & Jia Yi, 2023. "Capacity Assessment and Analysis of Vertiports Based on Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-22, September.

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