IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v204y2020ics0951832020306724.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improvement in the computational efficiency of a technique for assessing the reliability of electric power systems based on the Monte Carlo method

Author

Listed:
  • Krupenev, Dmitry
  • Boyarkin, Denis
  • Iakubovskii, Dmitrii

Abstract

The reliability of energy systems is assessed to control their operation and expansion. An effective method for reliability assessment is the Monte Carlo method. This process, however, is often time-consuming due to the large size of the power system. This interferes with subsequent control problems. The speed of reliability assessment and the accuracy of the result for the Monte Carlo method directly depend on the number of randomly generated states of the system, their quality and the complexity of the subproblem to be solved for each state. When solving such a subproblem for reliability assessment, random states can be defined as a shortage and shortage-free ones. To assess the reliability of power systems using the Monte Carlo method, one should analyze only the state of the system with a shortage. We suggest the use of machine learning methods to eliminate or sort the shortage and shortage-free states. The paper demonstrates the effectiveness of two methods: a support vector machine and a random forest. It also shows their performance when the Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods are used.

Suggested Citation

  • Krupenev, Dmitry & Boyarkin, Denis & Iakubovskii, Dmitrii, 2020. "Improvement in the computational efficiency of a technique for assessing the reliability of electric power systems based on the Monte Carlo method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:204:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020306724
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020306724
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107171?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hou, Tianfeng & Nuyens, Dirk & Roels, Staf & Janssen, Hans, 2019. "Quasi-Monte Carlo based uncertainty analysis: Sampling efficiency and error estimation in engineering applications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Alban, Andres & Darji, Hardik A. & Imamura, Atsuki & Nakayama, Marvin K., 2017. "Efficient Monte Carlo methods for estimating failure probabilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 376-394.
    3. Spassimir H. Paskov & Joseph F. Traub, 1995. "Faster Valuation of Financial Derivatives," Working Papers 95-03-034, Santa Fe Institute.
    4. Stern, R.E. & Song, J. & Work, D.B., 2017. "Accelerated Monte Carlo system reliability analysis through machine-learning-based surrogate models of network connectivity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-9.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Yuntao & Wang, Yumeng & Lai, Yuying & Shuai, Jian & Zhang, Laibin, 2023. "Monte Carlo-based quantitative risk assessment of parking areas for vehicles carrying hazardous chemicals," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    2. He, Zhichao & Wang, Yanhui & Xia, Weifu & Shen, Yue & Hao, Yucheng & Ren, Qiuyang, 2023. "A method for reliability assessment of complex electromechanical system based on improved network connectivity entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 632(P1).
    3. Jia, Xiang & Guo, Bo, 2022. "Reliability analysis for complex system with multi-source data integration and multi-level data transmission," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Gholizadeh, N. & Hosseinian, S.H. & Abedi, M. & Nafisi, H. & Siano, P., 2022. "Optimal placement of fuses and switches in active distribution networks using value-based MINLP," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Firouzi, Mohsen & Samimi, Abouzar & Salami, Abolfazl, 2022. "Reliability evaluation of a composite power system in the presence of renewable generations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    6. Yuan, Zixia & Xiong, Guojiang & Fu, Xiaofan & Mohamed, Ali Wagdy, 2023. "Improving fault tolerance in diagnosing power system failures with optimal hierarchical extreme learning machine," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    7. Wang, Can & Xie, Haipeng & Bie, Zhaohong & Li, Gengfeng & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Fast supply reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas system based on stochastic capacity network model and importance sampling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    8. Kamyab, Shahabeddin & Nematollahi, Mohammadreza & Henneaux, Pierre & Labeau, Pierre-Etienne, 2021. "Development of a hybrid method to assess grid-related LOOP scenarios for an NPP," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    9. Xingyun Liu & Miao Liu & He Li & Liuling Mo & Xiaoqian Liu, 2022. "Transition from Depression to Suicidal Attempt in Young Adults: The Mediation Effect of Self-Esteem and Interpersonal Needs," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-11, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Xiaohang & Zheng, Shansuo & Wu, Xinxia & Chen, Dianxin & He, Jinchuan, 2021. "Research on a seismic connectivity reliability model of power systems based on the quasi-Monte Carlo method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Xiaoqun Wang, 2016. "Handling Discontinuities in Financial Engineering: Good Path Simulation and Smoothing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 297-314, April.
    3. George Chang, 2018. "Examining the Efficiency of American Put Option Pricing by Monte Carlo Methods with Variance Reduction," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 10-13, February.
    4. Okten, Giray & Eastman, Warren, 2004. "Randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods in pricing securities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2399-2426, December.
    5. Tan, Ken Seng & Boyle, Phelim P., 2000. "Applications of randomized low discrepancy sequences to the valuation of complex securities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(11-12), pages 1747-1782, October.
    6. Nelson Areal & Artur Rodrigues & Manuel Armada, 2008. "On improving the least squares Monte Carlo option valuation method," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 119-151, March.
    7. Xiaoqun Wang & Ian H. Sloan, 2011. "Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering: An Equivalence Principle and Dimension Reduction," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 80-95, February.
    8. Jiang, Chen & Qiu, Haobo & Yang, Zan & Chen, Liming & Gao, Liang & Li, Peigen, 2019. "A general failure-pursuing sampling framework for surrogate-based reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 47-59.
    9. Li, Zai-Wei & Zhou, Yun-Lai & Liu, Xiao-Zhou & Abdel Wahab, Magd, 2023. "Service reliability assessment of ballastless track in high speed railway via improved response surface method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    10. Keshtegar, Behrooz & Chakraborty, Subrata, 2018. "An efficient-robust structural reliability method by adaptive finite-step length based on Armijo line search," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 195-206.
    11. Jean-Jacques Forneron, 2019. "A Scrambled Method of Moments," Papers 1911.09128, arXiv.org.
    12. Siegl, Thomas & F. Tichy, Robert, 2000. "Ruin theory with risk proportional to the free reserve and securitization," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 59-73, February.
    13. Nicola Cufaro Petroni & Piergiacomo Sabino, 2013. "Pricing and Hedging Asian Basket Options with Quasi-Monte Carlo Simulations," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 147-163, March.
    14. Wenxia Liu & Dapeng Guo & Yahui Xu & Rui Cheng & Zhiqiang Wang & Yueqiao Li, 2018. "Reliability Assessment of Power Systems with Photovoltaic Power Stations Based on Intelligent State Space Reduction and Pseudo-Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, June.
    15. Raymond Ross, 1998. "Good point methods for computing prices and sensitivities of multi-asset European style options," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 83-106.
    16. Xu, Jun & Kong, Fan, 2018. "A new unequal-weighted sampling method for efficient reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 94-102.
    17. Keshtegar, Behrooz & Chakraborty, Souvik, 2018. "Dynamical accelerated performance measure approach for efficient reliability-based design optimization with highly nonlinear probabilistic constraints," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 69-83.
    18. Wang, Qipeng & Zhao, Liang, 2023. "Data-driven stochastic robust optimization of sustainable utility system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    19. Bansal, Parth & Zheng, Zhuoyuan & Shao, Chenhui & Li, Jingjing & Banu, Mihaela & Carlson, Blair E & Li, Yumeng, 2022. "Physics-informed machine learning assisted uncertainty quantification for the corrosion of dissimilar material joints," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    20. Lu, Cheng & Teng, Da & Chen, Jun-Yu & Fei, Cheng-Wei & Keshtegar, Behrooz, 2023. "Adaptive vectorial surrogate modeling framework for multi-objective reliability estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:204:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020306724. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.