IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v202y2020ics0951832020305056.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term supply reliability assessment of a gas pipeline system under demand variations

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Qian
  • Zuo, Lili
  • Wu, Changchun
  • Bu, Yaran
  • Lu, Yifei
  • Huang, Yanfei
  • Chen, Feng

Abstract

It is the basic responsibility for pipeline companies to satisfy the gas demand of customers. A methodology is proposed to assess the short-term supply reliability of a gas pipeline system under demand variations in this paper. Based on the failure rate and repair rate of the pipe segments and compressor units obtained through historical operational data, the probability under different structural failure scenarios of a gas pipeline system is computed through the stochastic process and probability theory. Indices from aspects of adequacy, availability, and shortage rate are developed to reflect the supply reliability. To reflect the assessment results intuitively, the cumulative probability function is adopted to reflect the supply adequacy and availability, and the probability distribution is adopted to reflect the supply shortage rate during the assessment period. For all scenarios, supply reliability is calculated through batch transient hydraulic and thermal simulations of a gas pipeline system by Stoner Pipeline Simulator considering practical operational processes and legal constraints. The proposed methodology is performed based on the Trans-Asian gas pipeline A-B system, and the functions of cross-over valves on supply reliability of the Trans-Asian gas pipeline A-B system is studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Qian & Zuo, Lili & Wu, Changchun & Bu, Yaran & Lu, Yifei & Huang, Yanfei & Chen, Feng, 2020. "Short-term supply reliability assessment of a gas pipeline system under demand variations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:202:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020305056
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020305056
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weisser, Hellmuth, 2007. "The security of gas supply--a critical issue for Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-5, January.
    2. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 642-650.
    3. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
    4. Villada, Juan & Olaya, Yris, 2013. "A simulation approach for analysis of short-term security of natural gas supply in Colombia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 11-26.
    5. Yu, Weichao & Wen, Kai & Min, Yuan & He, Lei & Huang, Weihe & Gong, Jing, 2018. "A methodology to quantify the gas supply capacity of natural gas transmission pipeline system using reliability theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 128-141.
    6. Tran, Trung Hieu & French, Simon & Ashman, Rhys & Kent, Edward, 2018. "Linepack planning models for gas transmission network under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(2), pages 688-702.
    7. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    8. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
    9. Praks, Pavel & Kopustinskas, Vytis & Masera, Marcelo, 2015. "Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 254-264.
    10. Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Li, Xueyi, 2018. "A systematic framework of vulnerability analysis of a natural gas pipeline network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 79-91.
    11. Su, Huai & Zhang, Jinjun & Zio, Enrico & Yang, Nan & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2018. "An integrated systemic method for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 489-501.
    12. Finon, Dominique & Locatelli, Catherine, 2008. "Russian and European gas interdependence: Could contractual trade channel geopolitics?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 423-442, January.
    13. Jensen, H.A. & Jerez, D.J., 2018. "A Stochastic Framework for Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Large Scale Water Distribution Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 80-92.
    14. Cai, Baoping & Liu, Yonghong & Liu, Zengkai & Tian, Xiaojie & Dong, Xin & Yu, Shilin, 2012. "Using Bayesian networks in reliability evaluation for subsea blowout preventer control system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 32-41.
    15. Voropai, N.I. & Senderov, S.M. & Edelev, A.V., 2012. "Detection of “bottlenecks” and ways to overcome emergency situations in gas transportation networks on the example of the European gas pipeline network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 3-9.
    16. Yu, Weichao & Song, Shangfei & Li, Yichen & Min, Yuan & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Kai & Gong, Jing, 2018. "Gas supply reliability assessment of natural gas transmission pipeline systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 853-870.
    17. Rimkevicius, Sigitas & Kaliatka, Algirdas & Valincius, Mindaugas & Dundulis, Gintautas & Janulionis, Remigijus & Grybenas, Albertas & Zutautaite, Inga, 2012. "Development of approach for reliability assessment of pipeline network systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 22-33.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Qian & Zuo, Lili & Wu, Changchun & Li, Yun & Hua, Kaixun & Mehrtash, Mahdi & Cao, Yankai, 2022. "Optimization of compressor standby schemes for gas transmission pipeline systems based on gas delivery reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    2. Jiang, Qiangqiang & Cai, Baoping & Zhang, Yanping & Xie, Min & Liu, Cuiwei, 2023. "Resilience assessment methodology of natural gas network system under random leakage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    3. Liu, Aihua & Chen, Ke & Huang, Xiaofei & Li, Didi & Zhang, Xiaochun, 2021. "Dynamic risk assessment model of buried gas pipelines based on system dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. Yu, Weichao & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Yunhao & Li, Yichen & Liu, Hongfei & Wen, Kai & Gong, Jing & Lu, Yanan, 2021. "An integrated gas supply reliability evaluation method of the large-scale and complex natural gas pipeline network based on demand-side analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    5. Wang, WuChang & Zhang, Yi & Li, YuXing & Hu, Qihui & Liu, Chengsong & Liu, Cuiwei, 2022. "Vulnerability analysis method based on risk assessment for gas transmission capabilities of natural gas pipeline networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    6. Wang, Can & Xie, Haipeng & Bie, Zhaohong & Li, Gengfeng & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Fast supply reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas system based on stochastic capacity network model and importance sampling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    7. Su, Yue & Li, Jingfa & Yu, Bo & Zhao, Yanlin & Yao, Jun, 2021. "Fast and accurate prediction of failure pressure of oil and gas defective pipelines using the deep learning model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Balali, Amirhossein & Valipour, Alireza & Edwards, Rodger & Moehler, Robert, 2021. "Ranking effective risks on human resources threats in natural gas supply projects using ANP-COPRAS method: Case study of Shiraz," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    9. Bo, Yimin & Bao, Minglei & Ding, Yi & Hu, Yishuang, 2024. "A DNN-based reliability evaluation method for multi-state series-parallel systems considering semi-Markov process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Qian & Zuo, Lili & Wu, Changchun & Cao, Yankai & Bu, Yaran & Chen, Feng & Sadiq, Rehan, 2021. "Supply reliability assessment of a gas pipeline network under stochastic demands," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Yu, Weichao & Gong, Jing & Song, Shangfei & Huang, Weihe & Li, Yichen & Zhang, Jie & Hong, Bingyuan & Zhang, Ye & Wen, Kai & Duan, Xu, 2019. "Gas supply reliability analysis of a natural gas pipeline system considering the effects of underground gas storages," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Yu, Weichao & Song, Shangfei & Li, Yichen & Min, Yuan & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Kai & Gong, Jing, 2018. "Gas supply reliability assessment of natural gas transmission pipeline systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 853-870.
    4. Zhaoming Yang & Qi Xiang & Yuxuan He & Shiliang Peng & Michael Havbro Faber & Enrico Zio & Lili Zuo & Huai Su & Jinjun Zhang, 2023. "Resilience of Natural Gas Pipeline System: A Review and Outlook," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Xuejie Li & Yuan Xue & Yuxing Li & Qingshan Feng, 2022. "An Optimization Method for a Compressor Standby Scheme Based on Reliability Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Yu, Weichao & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Yunhao & Li, Yichen & Liu, Hongfei & Wen, Kai & Gong, Jing & Lu, Yanan, 2021. "An integrated gas supply reliability evaluation method of the large-scale and complex natural gas pipeline network based on demand-side analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Zhou, Xingyuan & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. & Liang, Yongtu & Zhang, Haoran, 2020. "An integrated methodology for the supply reliability analysis of multi-product pipeline systems under pumps failure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Zhu, Jianhua & Peng, Yan & Gong, Zhuping & Sun, Yanming & Lai, Chaoan & Wang, Qing & Zhu, Xiaojun & Gan, Zhongxue, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of SNG and PNG supply: The stability and robustness view #," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 717-729.
    9. Su, Huai & Zhang, Jinjun & Zio, Enrico & Yang, Nan & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2018. "An integrated systemic method for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 489-501.
    10. Corrado lo Storto, 2019. "An SNA-DEA Prioritization Framework to Identify Critical Nodes of Gas Networks: The Case of the US Interstate Gas Infrastructure," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-18, December.
    11. Cabrales, Sergio & Valencia, Carlos & Ramírez, Carlos & Ramírez, Andrés & Herrera, Juan & Cadena, Angela, 2022. "Stochastic cost-benefit analysis to assess new infrastructure to improve the reliability of the natural gas supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    12. Chen, Qian & Zuo, Lili & Wu, Changchun & Li, Yun & Hua, Kaixun & Mehrtash, Mahdi & Cao, Yankai, 2022. "Optimization of compressor standby schemes for gas transmission pipeline systems based on gas delivery reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    13. Wang, Can & Xie, Haipeng & Bie, Zhaohong & Li, Gengfeng & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Fast supply reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas system based on stochastic capacity network model and importance sampling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    14. Lu, Weiwei & Su, Meirong & Fath, Brian D. & Zhang, Mingqi & Hao, Yan, 2016. "A systematic method of evaluation of the Chinese natural gas supply security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 858-867.
    15. Beyza, Jesus & Ruiz-Paredes, Hector F. & Garcia-Paricio, Eduardo & Yusta, Jose M., 2020. "Assessing the criticality of interdependent power and gas systems using complex networks and load flow techniques," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    16. Wang, WuChang & Zhang, Yi & Li, YuXing & Hu, Qihui & Liu, Chengsong & Liu, Cuiwei, 2022. "Vulnerability analysis method based on risk assessment for gas transmission capabilities of natural gas pipeline networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    17. Zhou, Dengji & Jia, Xingyun & Ma, Shixi & Shao, Tiemin & Huang, Dawen & Hao, Jiarui & Li, Taotao, 2022. "Dynamic simulation of natural gas pipeline network based on interpretable machine learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    18. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.
    19. Senderov, Sergey M. & Vorobev, Sergey V. & Smirnova, Elena M., 2022. "Peak underground gas storage efficiency in reducing the vulnerability of gas supply to consumers in an extensive gas transmission system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    20. Yassine Rqiq & Jesus Beyza & Jose M. Yusta & Ricardo Bolado-Lavin, 2020. "Assessing the Impact of Investments in Cross-Border Pipelines on the Security of Gas Supply in the EU," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:202:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020305056. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.