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Variance-based sensitivity analysis for time-dependent processes

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  • Alexanderian, Alen
  • Gremaud, Pierre A.
  • Smith, Ralph C.

Abstract

The global sensitivity analysis of time-dependent processes requires history-aware approaches. We develop for that purpose a variance-based method that leverages the correlation structure of the problems under study and employs surrogate models to accelerate the computations. The errors resulting from fixing unimportant uncertain parameters to their nominal values are analyzed through a priori estimates. We illustrate our approach on a harmonic oscillator example and on a nonlinear dynamic cholera model.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexanderian, Alen & Gremaud, Pierre A. & Smith, Ralph C., 2020. "Variance-based sensitivity analysis for time-dependent processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:196:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019303837
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106722
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Pronzato, Luc, 2019. "Sensitivity analysis via Karhunen–Loève expansion of a random field model: Estimation of Sobol’ indices and experimental design," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 93-109.
    7. Campbell, Katherine & McKay, Michael D. & Williams, Brian J., 2006. "Sensitivity analysis when model outputs are functions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1468-1472.
    8. Sobol’, I.M. & Tarantola, S. & Gatelli, D. & Kucherenko, S.S. & Mauntz, W., 2007. "Estimating the approximation error when fixing unessential factors in global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 957-960.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lu, Xuefei & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2023. "Global sensitivity analysis in epidemiological modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 9-24.
    3. Zhou, Changcong & Shi, Zhuangke & Kucherenko, Sergei & Zhao, Haodong, 2022. "A unified approach for global sensitivity analysis based on active subspace and Kriging," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Xiong, Qingwen & Du, Peng & Deng, Jian & Huang, Daishun & Song, Gongle & Qian, Libo & Wu, Zenghui & Luo, Yuejian, 2022. "Global sensitivity analysis for nuclear reactor LBLOCA with time-dependent outputs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    5. Torii, André Jacomel & Novotny, Antonio André, 2021. "A priori error estimates for local reliability-based sensitivity analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Barr, John & Rabitz, Herschel, 2023. "Kernel-based global sensitivity analysis obtained from a single data set," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    7. Loni, Abdolah & Asadi, Somayeh, 2024. "A data-driven approach to quantify social vulnerability to power outages: California case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).

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