IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v193y2020ics095183201930359x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Realistic estimation of human error probability through Monte Carlo thermal-hydraulic simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Cho, Jaehyun
  • Kim, Yochan
  • Kim, Jaewhan
  • Park, Jinkyun
  • Kim, Dong-San

Abstract

Human reliability analysis (HRA) plays an important role in probabilistic safety assessment because human error probability (HEP) strongly influences not only core damage frequency in the nuclear field, for example, but also risk insight across many industries. Conventional HRA methods though use thermal-hydraulic analysis with best-estimate or conservative conditions to estimate the available time for a given operator action, thus significantly overestimating HEP. In response, this paper suggests a new method to more precisely quantify HEP using realistic thermal-hydraulic analyses with exhaustive conditions. The developed method was applied to the rapid cooldown operation in a small loss-of-coolant accident in the APR1400 nuclear power plant. As a result, it was found that conventional HRA methods currently overestimate the risk-significance of this rapid cooldown operation by a factor of six. It is expected that the new HRA method can be applied to not only the nuclear field but also other complex systems to accurately estimate system failure probabilities for specific scenarios by means of more realistic HEP.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho, Jaehyun & Kim, Yochan & Kim, Jaewhan & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Dong-San, 2020. "Realistic estimation of human error probability through Monte Carlo thermal-hydraulic simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s095183201930359x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106673
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183201930359X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106673?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2007. "OPERA—a human performance database under simulated emergencies of nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(4), pages 503-519.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Betz, Wolfgang & Papaioannou, Iason & Straub, Daniel, 2022. "Bayesian post-processing of Monte Carlo simulation in reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Jo, Wooseok & Lee, Seung Jun, 2024. "Human reliability evaluation method covering operator action timing for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zarei, Esmaeil & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2021. "Importance of human reliability in process operation: A critical analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. Jung, Wondea & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Yochan & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2020. "HuREX – A framework of HRA data collection from simulators in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    3. Groth, Katrina M. & Smith, Reuel & Moradi, Ramin, 2019. "A hybrid algorithm for developing third generation HRA methods using simulator data, causal models, and cognitive science," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Park, Jinkyun, 2014. "Investigating the TACOM measure as a general tool for quantifying the complexity of procedure guided tasks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 66-75.
    5. Park, Jooyoung & Boring, Ronald L. & Ulrich, Thomas A. & Lew, Roger & Lee, Sungheon & Park, Bumjun & Kim, Jonghyun, 2022. "A framework to collect human reliability analysis data for nuclear power plants using a simplified simulator and student operators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    6. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Jang, Inseok & Hyun Seong, Poong, 2015. "A statistical approach to estimating effects of performance shaping factors on human error probabilities of soft controls," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 378-387.
    7. Groth, Katrina M. & Smith, Curtis L. & Swiler, Laura P., 2014. "A Bayesian method for using simulator data to enhance human error probabilities assigned by existing HRA methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 32-40.
    8. Zwirglmaier, Kilian & Straub, Daniel & Groth, Katrina M., 2017. "Capturing cognitive causal paths in human reliability analysis with Bayesian network models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 117-129.
    9. Garg, Vipul & Vinod, Gopika & Kant, Vivek, 2023. "Auto-CREAM: Software application for evaluation of HEP with basic and extended CREAM for PSA studies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    10. Preischl, Wolfgang & Hellmich, Mario, 2016. "Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants, Part II," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 44-56.
    11. Liao, Huafei & Groth, Katrina & Stevens-Adams, Susan, 2015. "Challenges in leveraging existing human performance data for quantifying the IDHEAS HRA method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 159-169.
    12. Park, J. & Chang, Y.J. & Kim, Y. & Choi, S. & Kim, S. & Jung, W., 2017. "The use of the SACADA taxonomy to analyze simulation records: Insights and suggestions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 174-183.
    13. Shirley, Rachel Benish & Smidts, Carol & Zhao, Yunfei, 2020. "Development of a quantitative Bayesian network mapping objective factors to subjective performance shaping factor evaluations: An example using student operators in a digital nuclear power plant simul," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    14. Asad Ullah Amin Shah & Robby Christian & Junyung Kim & Jaewhan Kim & Jinkyun Park & Hyun Gook Kang, 2021. "Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Based Response Surface Approach for FLEX and Accident Tolerant Fuels for Medium Break LOCA Spectrum," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.
    15. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2018. "Estimating the quantitative relation between PSFs and HEPs from full-scope simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 12-22.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s095183201930359x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.