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System reliability assessment with multilevel information using the Bayesian melding method

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  • Guo, Jian
  • (Steven) Li, Zhaojun
  • (Judy) Jin, Jionghua

Abstract

This paper investigates the Bayesian melding method (BMM) for system reliability analysis by effectively integrating various available sources of expert knowledge and data at both subsystem and system levels. The integration of multiple priors is investigated under both linear and geometric pooling methods. The aggregated system prior distributions using various pooling methods including the BMM are evaluated and compared. Based on these integrated and updated prior distributions and three scenarios of data availability from a system and/or subsystems, methods for posterior system reliability inference are proposed. Computational challenges for posterior inferences using the sophisticated BMM are addressed using the adaptive sampling importance re-sampling (SIR) method. A numerical example with simulation results illustrates the applications of the proposed methods and provides insights for system reliability analysis using multilevel information.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Jian & (Steven) Li, Zhaojun & (Judy) Jin, Jionghua, 2018. "System reliability assessment with multilevel information using the Bayesian melding method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 146-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:170:y:2018:i:c:p:146-158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wilson, Alyson G. & McNamara, Laura A. & Wilson, Gregory D., 2007. "Information integration for complex systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 121-130.
    2. Yontay, Petek & Pan, Rong, 2016. "A computational Bayesian approach to dependency assessment in system reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 104-114.
    3. Cooke, Roger M. & Goossens, Louis L.H.J., 2008. "TU Delft expert judgment data base," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 657-674.
    4. Robert L. Winkler, 1968. "The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 61-75, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Yingchun & Yao, Wen & Zheng, Xiaohu & Chen, Xiaoqian, 2020. "An iterative information integration method for multi-level system reliability analysis based on Bayesian Melding Method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    2. Jia, Xiang & Guo, Bo, 2022. "Reliability analysis for complex system with multi-source data integration and multi-level data transmission," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Xu, Yanwen & Kohtz, Sara & Boakye, Jessica & Gardoni, Paolo & Wang, Pingfeng, 2023. "Physics-informed machine learning for reliability and systems safety applications: State of the art and challenges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    4. Yingchun Xu & Xiaohu Zheng & Wen Yao & Ning Wang & Xiaoqian Chen, 2021. "A sequential multi-prior integration and updating method for complex multi-level system based on Bayesian melding method," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 235(5), pages 863-876, October.
    5. Chemweno, Peter & Pintelon, Liliane & Muchiri, Peter Nganga & Van Horenbeek, Adriaan, 2018. "Risk assessment methodologies in maintenance decision making: A review of dependability modelling approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 64-77.
    6. Salomon, Julian & Winnewisser, Niklas & Wei, Pengfei & Broggi, Matteo & Beer, Michael, 2021. "Efficient reliability analysis of complex systems in consideration of imprecision," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    7. Huimin Wang & Zhaojun Steven Li, 2022. "An AdaBoost-based tree augmented naive Bayesian classifier for transient stability assessment of power systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 236(3), pages 495-507, June.
    8. Wang, Bo & Jiang, Ping & Guo, Bo, 2024. "A Bayesian design method for monopropellant engine system reliability qualification test plan," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    9. Zheng, Xiaohu & Yao, Wen & Xu, Yingchun & Chen, Xianqi, 2019. "Improved compression inference algorithm for reliability analysis of complex multistate satellite system based on multilevel Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 123-142.

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