IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v124y2014icp165-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On how to understand and present the uncertainties in production assurance analyses, with a case study related to a subsea production system

Author

Listed:
  • Aven, Terje
  • Pedersen, Linda Martens

Abstract

Production assurance analyses of production systems are in practice typically carried out using flow network modelling and Monte Carlo simulations. Based on the network and probability distribution assumptions for equipment lifetime and restoration time, the simulation tool produces predictions/estimates and uncertainty distributions of the production availability, which is defined as the ratio of production to planned production, or any other reference level, over a specified period of time. To adequately communicate the results from the analyses, it is essential that there is in place a framework which clarifies how to understand the concepts introduced, including the uncertainty distributions produced. Some key elements of such a conceptual framework are well established in the industry, for example the use of probability models to represent the stochastic variation related to lifetimes and restoration times. However an overall framework linking this variation, as well as “model uncertainties†, to the epistemic uncertainty distribution for the output production availability, has been lacking. The purpose of the present paper is to present such a framework, and in this way provide new insights to and guidelines on how to understand and present the uncertainties in practical production assurance analyses. An example related to a subsea production system is used to illustrate the framework and the guidelines.

Suggested Citation

  • Aven, Terje & Pedersen, Linda Martens, 2014. "On how to understand and present the uncertainties in production assurance analyses, with a case study related to a subsea production system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 165-170.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:124:y:2014:i:c:p:165-170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832013003165
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2013.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aven, Terje, 2013. "Practical implications of the new risk perspectives," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 136-145.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Silva, L.M.R. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Robust optimization model of an offshore oil production system for cost and pipeline risk of failure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    2. Langdalen, Henrik & Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Abrahamsen, HÃ¥kon Bjorheim, 2020. "A New Framework To Idenitfy And Assess Hidden Assumptions In The Background Knowledge Of A Risk Assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Bayesian framework for reliability prediction of subsea processing systems accounting for influencing factors uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    4. Ali N Qarahasanlou & Abbas Barabadi & Yonas Z Ayele, 2018. "Production performance analysis during operation phase: A case study," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 232(6), pages 559-575, December.
    5. Kloul, Leïla & Rauzy, Antoine, 2017. "Production trees: A new modeling methodology for production availability analyses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 561-571.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles Sabel & Gary Herrigel & Peer Hull Kristensen, 2018. "Regulation under uncertainty: The coevolution of industry and regulation," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(3), pages 371-394, September.
    2. Bjørnsen, Kjartan & Selvik, Jon Tømmerås & Aven, Terje, 2019. "A semi-quantitative assessment process for improved use of the expected value of information measure in safety management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 494-502.
    3. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2015. "An Evaluation of the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainties in the IPCC Reports on Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 701-712, April.
    4. Aven, Terje, 2013. "Probabilities and background knowledge as a tool to reflect uncertainties in relation to intentional acts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 229-234.
    5. Aven, Terje & Krohn, Bodil S., 2014. "A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 1-10.
    6. Inger Lise Johansen & Marvin Rausand, 2014. "Defining complexity for risk assessment of sociotechnical systems: A conceptual framework," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(3), pages 272-290, June.
    7. Goerlandt, Floris & Montewka, Jakub, 2015. "Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 115-134.
    8. Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Selvik, Jon Tømmerås & Milazzo, Maria Francesca & Langdalen, Henrik & Dahl, Roy Endre & Bansal, Surbhi & Abrahamsen, Håkon Bjorheim, 2021. "On the use of the ‘Return Of Safety Investments’ (ROSI) measure for decision-making in the chemical processing industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    9. Aven, Terje, 2017. "Improving risk characterisations in practical situations by highlighting knowledge aspects, with applications to risk matrices," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 42-48.
    10. Berner, Christine Louise & Flage, Roger, 2016. "Comparing and integrating the NUSAP notational scheme with an uncertainty based risk perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 185-194.
    11. Bani-Mustafa, Tasneem & Flage, Roger & Vasseur, Dominique & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "An extended method for evaluating assumptions deviations in quantitative risk assessment and its application to external flooding risk assessment of a nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    12. Katarina Buganova & Maria Luskova & Jozef Kubas & Michal Brutovsky & Jaroslav Slepecky, 2021. "Sustainability of Business through Project Risk Identification with Use of Expert Estimates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, June.
    13. Ullrika Sahlin & Maj Rundlöf, 2017. "Differences in the strengths of evidence matters in risk–risk trade-offs," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 988-994, August.
    14. Flage, Roger & Askeland, Tore, 2020. "Assumptions in quantitative risk assessments: When explicit and when tacit?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    15. Eyvind Aven & Terje Aven, 2015. "On the Need for Rethinking Current Practice that Highlights Goal Achievement Risk in an Enterprise Context," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(9), pages 1706-1716, September.
    16. Khorsandi, Jahon & Aven, Terje, 2017. "Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 22-32.
    17. Roger Flage & Terje Aven & Enrico Zio & Piero Baraldi, 2014. "Concerns, Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(7), pages 1196-1207, July.
    18. Langdalen, Henrik & Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Abrahamsen, HÃ¥kon Bjorheim, 2020. "A New Framework To Idenitfy And Assess Hidden Assumptions In The Background Knowledge Of A Risk Assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    19. Aven, Terje, 2014. "On the meaning of the special-cause variation concept used in the quality discourse – And its link to unforeseen and surprising events in risk management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 81-86.
    20. Amro Nasr & Oskar Larsson Ivanov & Ivar Björnsson & Jonas Johansson & Dániel Honfi, 2021. "Towards a Conceptual Framework for Built Infrastructure Design in an Uncertain Climate: Challenges and Research Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:124:y:2014:i:c:p:165-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.