IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v123y2014icp47-56.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improving estimates of critical lower percentiles by induced censoring

Author

Listed:
  • Edwards, David J.
  • Guess, Frank M.
  • León, Ramón V.
  • Young, Timothy M.
  • Crookston, Kevin A.

Abstract

In this article, we present an approach based on induced censoring for improving the estimation of critical lower percentiles. We validate this technique via simulation results and practical industrial insights. Data from product components that have at least two aging periods (e.g., bathtub failure rate) is investigated. When such data are improperly fit by certain reliability distributions, estimates of lower percentiles are impacted by longer-lasting failures, resulting in larger root mean square errors (RMSE) and bias. In lieu of utilizing a more complex bathtub model, we propose induced right censoring of data at various points to substantially reduce RMSE and bias of lower percentile estimates. A technique for finding optimal or near optimal censoring points is discussed and two real world examples illustrate how this works in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Edwards, David J. & Guess, Frank M. & León, Ramón V. & Young, Timothy M. & Crookston, Kevin A., 2014. "Improving estimates of critical lower percentiles by induced censoring," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 47-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:123:y:2014:i:c:p:47-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.10.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832013002779
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2013.10.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Murari Mitra & Sujit Basu, 1995. "Change point estimation in non-monotonic aging models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 47(3), pages 483-491, September.
    2. Murthy, D.N.P. & Hagmark, P.-E. & Virtanen, S., 2009. "Product variety and reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(10), pages 1601-1608.
    3. Jiang, R. & Murthy, D.N.P., 2009. "Impact of quality variations on product reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 490-496.
    4. Crookston, Kevin A. & Mark Young, Timothy & Harper, David & Guess, Frank M., 2011. "Statistical reliability analyses of two wood plastic composite extrusion processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 172-177.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jia, Xiang & Wang, Dong & Jiang, Ping & Guo, Bo, 2016. "Inference on the reliability of Weibull distribution with multiply Type-I censored data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 171-181.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Crookston, Kevin A. & Mark Young, Timothy & Harper, David & Guess, Frank M., 2011. "Statistical reliability analyses of two wood plastic composite extrusion processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 172-177.
    2. Murthy, D.N.P. & Hagmark, P.-E. & Virtanen, S., 2009. "Product variety and reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(10), pages 1601-1608.
    3. Murthy, D.N.P. & Rausand, M. & Virtanen, S., 2009. "Investment in new product reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(10), pages 1593-1600.
    4. Sabri-Laghaie, Kamyar & Fathi, Mahdi & Zio, Enrico & Mazhar, Maryam, 2022. "A novel reliability monitoring scheme based on the monitoring of manufacturing quality error rates," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Man-Wai Ho, 2011. "On Bayes inference for a bathtub failure rate via S-paths," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 63(4), pages 827-850, August.
    6. M. Anis, 2014. "Tests of non-monotonic stochastic aging notions in reliability theory," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 691-714, August.
    7. Jiang, R. & Murthy, D.N.P., 2011. "A study of Weibull shape parameter: Properties and significance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(12), pages 1619-1626.
    8. M Bebbington & C D Lai & D N P Murthy & R Zitikis, 2009. "Modelling N- and W-shaped hazard rate functions without mixing distributions," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 223(1), pages 59-69, March.
    9. Lai, Chin-Diew & Izadi, Muhyiddin, 2012. "Generalized logistic frailty model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(11), pages 1969-1977.
    10. Leiva, Víctor & Ruggeri, Fabrizio & Saulo, Helton & Vivanco, Juan F., 2017. "A methodology based on the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution for reliability analysis applied to nano-materials," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 192-201.
    11. Yihai He & Linbo Wang & Zhenzhen He & Xun Xiao, 2016. "Modelling infant failure rate of electromechanical products with multilayered quality variations from manufacturing process," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(21), pages 6594-6612, November.
    12. Zhi-Sheng Ye & Loon-Ching Tang & Min Xie, 2014. "Bi-objective burn-in modeling and optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 212(1), pages 201-214, January.
    13. Li, Mingyang & Meng, Hongdao & Zhang, Qingpeng, 2017. "A nonparametric Bayesian modeling approach for heterogeneous lifetime data with covariates," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 95-104.
    14. Zhang, Tian & Homri, Lazhar & Dantan, Jean-Yves & Siadat, Ali, 2023. "Models for reliability assessment of reconfigurable manufacturing system regarding configuration orders," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    15. Robab Aghazadeh Chakherloo & Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad & Kamran Sepanloo, 2017. "Change points estimations of bathtub-shaped hazard functions," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 8(3), pages 553-559, September.
    16. Mark Bebbington & Chin-Diew Lai & Ričardas Zitikis, 2007. "Optimum Burn-in Time for a Bathtub Shaped Failure Distribution," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:123:y:2014:i:c:p:47-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.